Wednesday, June 1, 2016

Sir Godric from Heresy Miniatures - A Closer Look

In this weeks A Closer Look, we open up Sir Godric, a Paladin from Heresy Miniatures.


Sculpted by Steve Buddle, he was originally part of the Spyglass/Eolith range before moving to Heresy.

 He's a single piece 28mm scale metal model, ideal for either adding as a hero to many game systems or as an RPG character. To help with this, before you add him to the cart on the Heresy webstore, you can choose what style of base to pick up with him. I personally went with 30mm round lipped as I can never have enough of those, but this allows you to pick to best suit the system you wish to use him in.





I inked him straight out of his packaging, so there is a bit of flash on the end of his sword and some mold lines still to be cleaned off.

If you like him, you can pick him up, along with a whole host of other fantasy and sci fi minis from Heresy Miniatures, where he comes in at the great price of £4.50.


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There Is Only One Answer

I get emails everyday from people seeking answers.  Likewise, I read dozens of articles from people purporting to have the answers.

The questions cover hundreds of areas:

How do I get a person to answer the phone?

How do I get a meeting?

How do I differentiate my solutions from the competition?

What’s my/our value proposition?

How do I make sure I’m dealing with the right decisionmaker?

How do I avoid discounting and defend my price?

How do I make sure I hit my numbers?

How do I make a killer sales call?

How do I create a winning strategy?

What’s the best way to handle this objection?

What’s the best way to make sure my pipeline is filled?

What do I do with low performers?

What do I neeed to do to build trust with my customer?

What do I do to get my people to perform?

How to we compete against?

How do we define our price?

How do I get that promotion?

How do I keep my job?

What is the best way to ….?

How do I …….

What do I …….

Too often, the question is focused on finding the one right answer.  It’s the pursuit of the silver bullet or the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

Too often, there’s advice, some of it good, lots of it bad.  There are people that have the answer!  It’s what worked for them.  It’s what they discovered in research—“90% of high performers do this….”

We take the advice, but it doesn’t work for us.  Or it’s difficult, we encounter resistance, so we abandon it, searching for another answer.

Most of the time when someone comes to me seeking answers, unfortunately I disappoint them.  My response is, “It depends.”  I then deluge them with questions about the situation, the people they are dealing with, themselves, what’s happening, what they need to achieve, why……..

In the end, we discover there is one answer to their question.

But it’s never the answer they read about in a blog, or the advice from an expert saying, “Here is the secret to success….”

It’s the answer for the individual comes up with—for the specific situation they are dealing with, for that moment in time, what they feel confident they can execute.

There is always one answer, but it is unique to us, not the answer that has worked for someone else.

The problem is, we don’t take the time to figure out “our answer.”  We either are too lazy, use the excuse of being too rushed, or don’t have the personal confidence in figuring it out.   So we choose someone else’s answer, or one that may have worked in the past, but is no longer appropriate.

Sometimes, we are paralyzed in choosing an answer, there may be many alternatives, but we have to make the choice.

Ultimately, there is one answer, until we choose it and execute it, we don’t produce a result.

Sometimes, it’s the wrong result, we learn, we have to figure out what’s the right answer to recover and take the next step.

Finding answers to these questions is, sometimes, difficult.  Finding “our” answers is often more difficult.

But that’s what growth, learning, and achievement are about.



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Games of the Day

The Blue Jays go for a sweep of the Yankees at home as Masahiro Tanaka takes on Aaron Sanchez. Tanaka is Mr. No Decision this season. He owns a 3-0 record in ten starts despite a 2.89 ERA and an opponents slash line of .211/.250/.335. The Yankees don’t score much for him, but they are 7-3 in his starts. Sanchez is a nice match for Tanaka. He walks more batters than the Yankees ace, but still holds opponents to a .229/.297/.339 slash line.

The King, Felix Hernandez takes the hill for Seattle as the interleague series moves to San Diego. Christian Friedrich stands in opposition. Fernandez is also pitching better than his record, 4-4 with a 2.86 ERA. He help batters to a .136 BA with runners in scoring position this season. Friedrich looks like someone whose 1.65 ERA won’t stand up for long. He walked 10 and struck out 11 in 16 1/3 innings. That’s way too many walks, but so far he has not allowed a home run.

Enjoy!



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You Can’t Win Them All

Although Jake Arrieta did not get the decision, the Cubs lost a start he made for the first time this season. Scott Kazmir and the Dodgers bullpen tossed a 5-0 shutout, all five runs coming off Cubs relievers after Arrieta posted seven shutout innings.

The Cubs do a very good job of supporting their ace. Up until Tuesday night, they averaged 8.1 runs per start. It’s tough for any pitcher to lose with that kind of support, but Tuesday night regression bit the Cubs. In his previous start, Jake pitched poorly and the offense picked him up. Tuesday, he kept the Cubs in the game, but no one at the plate could deliver. You can’t win them all.



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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN).

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.369 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Morgan
0.332 — Jose Altuve batting against Robbie Ray
0.322 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Mike Wright
0.321 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Sean Manaea
0.317 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Jonathon Niese
0.316 — Martin Prado batting against Jonathon Niese
0.311 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against John Lamb
0.310 — DJ LeMahieu batting against John Lamb
0.309 — Victor Martinez batting against Matt Shoemaker
0.304 — Gerardo Parra batting against John Lamb

I’ll note that John Lamb’s inclusion on the list is based on allowing an extremely high BABIP and HR/9 IP over not too many innings.

The NN produces this top ten:

0.332, 0.763 — Jose Altuve batting against Robbie Ray.
0.369, 0.755 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Morgan.
0.322, 0.744 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Mike Wright.
0.302, 0.741 — Josh Harrison batting against Adam Conley.
0.269, 0.739 — Buster Posey batting against Williams Perez.
0.260, 0.738 — Ben Revere batting against Adam Morgan.
0.321, 0.734 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Sean Manaea.
0.292, 0.733 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Matt Shoemaker.
0.316, 0.732 — Martin Prado batting against Jonathon Niese.
0.310, 0.731 — DJ LeMahieu batting against John Lamb.

The two systems seem to be in agreement today on the top three picks, if not the exact order.

On a side note, there are a number of very hot hit streaks in progress right now. With the exception of Alcides Escobar, everyone with a streak of at least eight games is tearing the cover off the ball. Bogaerts is at 24 games, Carlos Gonzalez at nine games with an OBP over .500 and a slugging percentage over 1.000, and Daniel Murphy’s streak has him flirting with .400. These aren’t 1 for 4 streaks.



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Players of the Month

Offensive player of the month presents a tough choice for May 2016, as so many hitters turned in superlative performances. Ben Zobrist leads off with a .483 OBP, the best in the majors. He added 13 extra base hits to his high hit and walk totals for a .653 slugging percentage. Right behind him is Jackie Bradley, Jr. with a .474 OBP and an even higher .701 slugging percentage. Bradley captivated the baseball world with his 29-game hit streak.

Strictly on the power side, David Ortiz led the way with a .765 slugging percentage. He also topped the majors in RBI and doubles. Note that Bradley ranks third on the slugging list. While batting average is not a great indicator of talent, it’s rare that a batter hits .400 for even a month. Three players, Daniel Murphy at .416, Marcell Ozuna at .411, and Zobrist at .406 all accomplished that feat in May. Mookie Betts took advantage of all the power behind him to score 30 runs in the month. Khristopher Davis and Adam Duvall each hit 11 home runs, but didn’t do much else.

My choice is the consensus second place pick, Bradley. While he didn’t lead in any category, he posted a much better slugging percentage than the leader in OBP, and a much better OBP than the leader in slugging percentage. Jackie Bradley, Jr. is the Baseball Musings Offensive Player of the Month for May 2016.

Pitcher of the month is a much easier choice. While a number of pitchers posted outstanding ERAs, one did it with incredible three-true outcome numbers, Clayton Kershaw. Not only did he post a major league best 0.91 ERA in the month, he did it while allowing just two walks and one home run while striking out 65. That was good for a 5-0 record. Three of those starts were shutouts, so he’s staying the game. Jose Fernandez went 6-0 with a 1.38 ERA, and his three-true outcome numbers would have won him the award in most months. (Just to point out how meaningless wins can be, Julio Teheran pitched the same number of innings with the same ERA as Fernandez, but was 1-2.) Clayton Kershaw is the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month for May 2016.



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Wednesday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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