Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN).

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.328 — Jon Jay batting against Chris Rusin
0.326 — Josh Harrison batting against Jered Weaver
0.319 — Starling Marte batting against Jered Weaver
0.314 — Yangervis Solarte batting against Christopher Rusin
0.308 — Wil Myers batting against Christopher Rusin
0.301 — Victor Martinez batting against Carlos Rodon
0.300 — Daniel Murphy batting against Brandon Finnegan
0.300 — Matt Kemp batting against Christopher Rusin
0.300 — Alexei Ramirez batting against Christopher Rusin
0.298 — Xander Bogaerts batting against R.A. Dickey

Rusin allowed a .304 BA so far this year, but .257 on the road. On the other hand, Petco Park turned into Coors south the last couple of games.

The NN made these picks:

0.297, 0.746 — Jose Altuve batting against Jesse Hahn.
0.326, 0.740 — Josh Harrison batting against Jered Weaver.
0.294, 0.737 — Danny Valencia batting against Doug Fister.
0.298, 0.731 — Xander Bogaerts batting against R.A. Dickey.
0.289, 0.728 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.288, 0.728 — Buster Posey batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.261, 0.728 — Corey Dickerson batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.314, 0.728 — Yangervis Solarte batting against Christopher Rusin.
0.300, 0.726 — Daniel Murphy batting against Brandon Finnegan.
0.262, 0.725 — Billy Burns batting against Doug Fister.

Running this every day, it’s clear the NN has favorite batters like Jose Altuve, Josh Harrison, and Buster Posey. Good luck!

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Slugfest Series

I would not believe a four-game series between the Padres and the Mariners would produce 81 runs. In the finale Thursday night, in Petco Park of all places, the Padres jumped out to a 12-2 lead, only to allow five runs in the sixth inning and nine runs in the seventh inning. The Mariners win the game 16-13.

The Mariners offense hit .353/.431/.588 for the four games, going 21 for 39 with runners in scoring position. Eight of their 10 home runs came with men on base. The Padres did not get on base quite as well, with a .348/.371/.544 slash line. They “only” hit .357 with runners in scoring position, and four of their seven homers came with men on. The Mariners took three of four games in the series.

To paraphrase Jerry Seinfeld, the Padres know how to take a lead, they just don’t know how to hold the lead. If they keep scoring gobs of runs, however, it will become easier to hold leads.

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Friday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

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Project Fishermen: Showcase

This project has now come to an end, let's see the final few bits!



I've now finished painting Jac and Sakana and so the project is done!

Click on the below for a bigger image!

And here's a few pictures of Jac and Sakana for completeness!

Overall I like the models, but they have proved very fagile, several have broken at minor touches, even whilst cleaning model lines. Hopefully they'll be ok.

What project is next I wonder..

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Chen Music

Wei-Yin Chen just finished the sixth inning against the Pirates, and Chen has not allowed a hit. He issued two walks and hit a batter as the Marlins lead 3-0. Chen has not been very efficient, and has take 90 pitches to get through 21 batters. At seasonal age 30, however, the Marlins will stick with him at least until he allows a hit.

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Roadie

The split between the home and road performance of Zack Greinke with the Diamondbacks continues to grow. He pitched seven shutout inning Thursday afternoon as Arizona beat Houston 3-0. Greinke walked none and struck out 11. He’s now walked four on the road with 38 K in 35 innings, allowing one home run. At home those numbers are 10 walks and 33 K in 42 2/3 innings with eight home runs. That leads to a 6.54 ERA at home, 1.54 on the road.

The ball does carry well in Arizona. It also sits at a high altitude. It may just be, like Denver, that the ball doesn’t break as much as pitchers would like. Greinke is a smart pitcher, so I’m interested to see if he starts pitching differently at home. I also wonder if the DBacks will adjust his schedule to pitch him on the road more.

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Unfair to the Braves

Madison Bumgarner pitched 7 2/3 shutout innings and homered to drive in the only runs that mattered as San Francisco beat Atlanta 6-0 Thursday afternoon. The Giants ace walked two and struck out 11, and his four total bases were one less than the entire Braves team.

It really is unfair that the Braves can’t have a good team like the Giants. In order to combat this growing inequality, Bumgarner should play the Braves with just a catcher. Bumgarner could do all the batting, using imaginary runners (i) whenever he reaches base. So with strikeouts and pop ups the only outs, the Braves might win five out of ten.

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