Tuesday, April 2, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2019, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

There is a bug in the Log5 Method, and I don’t know how it got there. I need to do some work to figure it out, and that will need to wait until this evening. My apologies.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.278, 0.691 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jose Urena.
  • 0.275, 0.690 — David Peralta batting against Eric Lauer.
  • 0.261, 0.687 — J.D. Martinez batting against Michael Fiers.
  • 0.265, 0.686 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
  • 0.271, 0.685 — Adam Jones batting against Eric Lauer.
  • 0.269, 0.684 — Christian Yelich batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
  • 0.256, 0.681 — Jose Altuve batting against Shelby Miller.
  • 0.267, 0.681 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
  • 0.268, 0.680 — Anthony Rendon batting against Zach Eflin.
  • 0.258, 0.678 — Michael Brantley batting against Shelby Miller.
  • 0.276, 0.675 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Marco Gonzales.

Ramos is off to a hot start, 6 for 13.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2Ui73Zh

Best Batter Today

Christian Yelich waited until the last minute to get a hit, but his ninth inning double led to him scoring the winning run in the Brewers 4-3 victory over the Reds. That keeps him on top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He is followed by Anthony Rendon, J.D. Martinez, Mike Trout, and Mitch Haniger. Alex Bregman drops out of the top five for the first time in a long time. He is 2 for 17 to start the season.



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2CPcMeR

Tuesday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2JZgCZb

Getting The Cart Before The Horse, Sales Automation

Technology and automation can enable each of us to be much more efficient, and sometimes more impactful/effective. In our company, we couldn’t achieve what we do without our technology stack. In some ways, it’s an appendage we couldn’t manage to live without.

Having said that, it’s not the technology that drives performance.

Think about it for a moment. If it were the technology that drove performance, we wouldn’t see the disparity in performance from different companies using the same technology. If it were technology, one would see uplifts in performance of all organizations using the technology, but we don’t.

Unfortunately, I see too many organizations implementing great technologies, somehow thinking that because they have done this, perhaps even if they enforce sales person compliance, performance will improve because they are implementing a technology.

As a result, billions are spent on technologies that don’t produce results. It’s not the vendor’s fault—mostly, more later. But it’s because we are starting with a “solution,” before we have even defined the issues, diagnosed why we are having those issues, and developed the strategies, programs, skills, processes, capability, and corrective actions.

We can’t exploit the the technology and tools until we identify and correct the underlying issues.

Not long ago, I had a conversation with a sales enablement team. They were moving at warp speed buying and implementing account management and demand gen software technologies.

I started asking them, what are the issues you are trying to address? Where are your people struggling in developing and executing account strategies or in driving demand? Why are they having those problems? …..And more questions, having nothing to do with the software they were trying to buy.

The folks I was speaking to started looking uncomfortable and frustrated. Here I was, slowing them down in their process. They wanted to buy these tools, somehow believing that having the tools would suddenly make them better.

But they hadn’t taken the time to understand the underlying problems and challenges sales people had in implementing their account management/demand gen strategies. As a result, they didn’t know the key things that needed to be done to improve performance. They may have had nothing to do with what any of the software tools could provide. Alternatively, not understanding these issues, not knowing what corrective action was needed, not prioritizing these, putting in place goals, and so forth would seriously impact the value they got from the tools they put in place.

Another group was putting in place a new CRM system. As we see with most CRM systems (and virtually every tool), the sales people weren’t using it. The sales enablement team started putting in place rules that sales people “must adhere to.” For example, “You must use CRM every day….”

Smart sales people knew how to comply, they signed into CRM everyday (since that was what the sales enablement team was tracking), remained signed in all day, but didn’t do anything.

The sales enablement team then started asking questions, “Why aren’t you using it?” The answers came back, “I don’t see how it helps me with what I am trying to do!” The reality, is for the problems the sales team face, CRM wouldn’t do much for them. There were other more fundamental issues about their targeting, their engagement strategies, and their ability to develop and create compelling value.

Before we implement any tools, before we implement any training, before we implement any processes, systems, or programs, we have to understand what problem we are trying to solve. We have to diagnose what’s causing those problems. We have to understand what behaviors, capabilities, changes we need to put in place to be doing things right. Only then, can we start to overlay the technologies, training, and other things that “enable” the successful execution of what we need our sales people to be doing.



from Partners in EXCELLENCE Blog — Making A Difference https://ift.tt/2CRzgvM

Monday, April 1, 2019

Harmon Passes

Chuck Harmon, the first African American player on the Cincinnati Reds, died at the age of 94:

“The entire Reds family is saddened to lose one of its great ambassadors. The first African American to play for the Reds, Chuck Harmon was much more than a ballplayer,” said Reds Chief Executive Officer Bob Castellini. “He represents a pivot point in Reds history. Chuck’s positive attitude and disposition helped diffuse the adversity he faced, and set the tone for those following in his footsteps. He was beloved by his teammates during his career and remained a treasure to this franchise and its fans throughout his life. He will be missed.”

Cincinnati.com

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Harmon was never a star, and was hurt by not reaching the majors until he was in his 30s. His prime was wasted in the minors.



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2CPsUx7

MLBPA Changes

The chief of operations at the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA) returns to private law practice, leading to a series of personnel changes at the organization. This is the most interesting one to me:


Associate general counsel Greg Dreyfuss, 32, was given the additional title of director of analytics and baseball operations. Vastly outnumbered in analytics ability by Major League Baseball, the union intends to increase resources in that area. Dreyfuss worked for SFX Baseball (later Relativity), then was hired by the union in 2014.

ESPN.com

There might be some jobs opening up for analysts soon.



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2FOW2FA

And Andujar

The Yankees add Miguel Andujar to the illjured list. He hurt his shoulder:

The news comes just hours after the Yankees announced Giancarlo Stanton was bound for the injured list with a left bicep strain.

New York is also without Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, Aaron Hicks, and Didi Gregorius, among others.?

SportingNews.com

This is an excellent example of why it’s tough to call a division. The Yankees have a quarter of their 25 man roster out with injury. They are all very good players, not easily replaced.



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2TPL6fE