Monday, May 1, 2017

Customers And Sales, We Need Each Other!

If I were to assess the worlds of buying and selling through much of what I read, I would come up with the conclusion that Customers and Sales people are on diverging paths, we are doing as much to minimize our interactions with each other.  The Holy Grail of these diverging paths is AI–from a buyers perspective, helping us buy efficiently and intelligently.  From a sellers perspective helping us  sell more efficiently.  Someday buyers and sellers will have their bots talking with each other, freeing human beings from the process of buying and selling.

Survey after survey discuss buyer dissatisfaction with sales–they don’t understand customer businesses, focusing on what they care about.  They don’t know their own products that well.  They waste buyers’ time.  We all know the data that customers often prefer digital research (why 100% of customers aren’t researching digitally is beyond me.).

At the same time, sales seems to be on a different path.  Yes, there are those Challengers and Insight driven sales people (I’ll come back to this later).  But more and more we seem to be focused on driving inbound–waiting for the customer to now they want something, yes, after they’ve completed their research.  We seek to automate and segment the process, focusing on our own efficiency.  Marketing creates MQLs, SDRs pass leads to BDRs/AEs who pass opportunities specialist and demo’ers, who pass them to account management or closers, all ultimately received by customer success who then go after retention, renewal, upsell, cross sell.  We seek to automate as much of the engagement process as we can–sure it’s efficient and potentially cheaper, but does it create meaning for customers?

I was recently speaking to a sales team about a big win, I asked, “What did you sell it for?”  Their response was “A little over a $1M.”  They missed my point and couldn’t answer when I clarified my question.  In another conversation with a senior sales person, I asked, “What do they do?”  He didn’t know, but he was busy trying to get them to buy.

It’s easy to see why we are on diverging paths.  We are each optimizing our own workflow with little attention to the other.

But customers and sales people need each other—at least in complex B2B situations.  Each buying decision is different–there are different situations, differing goals, differing company cultures, priorities, change/risk profiles.  No amount of digital research will help customers understand their own situation.  No amount of research will help customers know whether they are asking the right questions or oblivious to critical issues.

And then there are those customer who desperately need to change, but are so busy doing their work, they are oblivious to that need.

Great sales people offer great value to customers in addressing these along with a myriad of other issues they may not appreciate in their buying processes.

Sales needs these customers too!  Beyond the obvious need for orders and revenue, we learn from our active engagement with customers.  It helps us improve, it helps us recognize where we create and deliver differentiated value, it helps us learn how to compete.  Without deep engagement with customers, how do we learn about new and emerging problems that drive our own corporate strategies for new solutions, services, and ways to grow.

Customers and sales have a shared dependence.  What would happen if we started acting on this, designing our engagement strategies to build on these relationships and value?

 

 



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The Lat-est on Syndergaard

Noah Syndergaard is on the disabled list, and the Mets don’t know when he will be back:

“Pitcher Noah Syndergaard underwent an MRI this morning at the Hospital for Special Surgery. The MRI revealed a partial tear of the right lat muscle,” the Mets said in a statement. “At this point, there is no timeframe for his return. He will be placed on the 10-day disabled list.”

I suspect the muscle was strained, which caused the discomfort that forced him to miss a start. The pain relievers allowed him to throw again, but the force of pitching in the game finally tore the muscle.

Nationals manager Dusty Baker, whose team set a franchise record for runs, said he noticed something about Syndergaard in the first inning.

“We could tell something was wrong,” Baker said. “He was throwing the ball firm, but it wasn’t moving like usual. When you have a guy like that, you certainly have to jump on him.”

When I was very young, we had a Dachshund. One day we came downstairs, and he was just lying still on the floor. We knew something was wrong, so we took him to the vet. The vet diagnosed a slipped disk in the neck (common for that breed) and recommended rest. The vet noted that dogs handle injuries better than people. They just rest until they are better. It’s a lesson that Syndergaard learned the hard way.



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Games of the Day

The AL East dominates the schedule early with the Blue Jays visiting the Yankees and the Orioles traveling to Boston to face the Red Sox. Marco Estrada and Luis Severino take the mound in the Bronx. Estrada pitched fine in April, but despite a 2.70 ERA did not get a win in five starts. His 33 K in 30 innings helped hold opponents to a .223 BA. Severino showed power and control so far in 2017, striking out 33 and walking four in 27 innings. His weakness is his four home runs allowed, two of them with men on base.

Dylan Bundy takes the ball for Baltimore against Rick Porcello in Boston. Bundy owns a 1.65 ERA in five starts. While his 23 K in 32 2/3 innings is slightly low, his six walks and two home runs allowed are excellent. Home runs hurt Porcello’s season so far, allowing 10 of his 21 runs on the long ball. Errors hurt, too, as only 16 of those 21 runs were earned.

Finally, the Giants visit the Dodgers with Johnny Cueto facing Clayton Kershaw. Cueto started the season with a 3-1 record despite a 5.10 ERA. He got both good run support and good bullpen support. He allowed six home runs in 30 innings, and four have come with men on base. Kershaw in 2017 shows his typical high strikeout, low walk tendencies. He already allowed four home runs after giving up eight in 2016.

Enjoy!



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Players of the Month

There are a number of good candidates for the April 2017 offensive player of the month. Bryce Harper led the majors in OBP with a .509 mark, batting .391 and slugging .772. He also set a record for runs scored in April with 32 while driving in 26 runs.

Harper’s teammate, Ryan Zimmerman hit .420 for the month, beating out Justin Turner for highest BA in the majors, as Turner hit .404. It’s tough to hit .400 for a month, let alone a season. Zimmerman added eleven home runs and 29 RBI. His home run total tied for the MLB lead with Eric Thames. His RBI total led the majors outright. Note that the top three players driving in runs were the heart of the Nationals order, as Daniel Murphy joined Harper with 26 RBI. The three together drove in more runs that the Royals scored as a team in April. Zimmerman’s slugging percentage also topped the league. He’s a fairly obvious choice for the top spot, so Ryan Zimmerman wins the Baseball Musings Offensive Player of the Month for April 2017! Also, congratulations on nice comebacks by both Zimmerman and Thames.

On the pitching side, it’s a three-way race. Ervin Santana posted the best ERA, 0.77, with a 4-0 record. Dallas Keuchel went 5-0, pitched the most innings, and out performed Santana in two of the three true outcomes. Keuchel’s ERA came in third, at 1.21.

Chris Sale outpitched both in terms of three-true outcomes, with 12.42 K per 9 IP, 1.43 walks per 9 IP, and just one home run allowed in 37 2/3 innings. That was good for a 1.19 ERA, second best in the majors. Amazingly, all three pitch for American League teams and face a designated hitter. Note that Sale doesn’t lead the majors in any of those three categories, but he is near the top in all of them. Despite his great pitching, he owns a 1-2 record in five starts. Santana is helped a great deal by his defense, and Keuchel has a better offense behind him. For doing everything well a pitcher should do, despite his record, Chris Sale is the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month for April 2017.



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Weekly Look at Offense

After four weeks of baseball, the 2017 season is way ahead of the 2016 season at the same point (all data is a four week comparison). The 2017 season currently produces 8.84 runs per game compare to 8.48 in 2016. That gap is due to one of the best offensive weeks of the last three season, as the majors produced 10.17 runs per game. The Nationals playing in Coors Field probably helped a lot, as did their 23 run game Sunday. The spreadsheet tracks runs per game per week since 2015, and as you can see from the chart, last week was second only to week 13 of 2016.

The big factor in the year over year increase is the increase in home runs. The majors now produces 2.34 home runs per game versus 2.08 HR per game in 2016. Strikeouts and walks are up slightly, while other this are down. In fact, the overall number of batters earning their way on (H+BB+HBP) is slightly down, 23.978 per game versus 23.992 per games in 2016. All that extra fire power moves those base runners farther.

The outlier weeks usually don’t last, so we’ll see next week if this is a new trend, or just a week of good offensive teams playing in good offensive parks.



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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.303 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Brett Anderson
0.301 — Brandon Phillips batting against Robert Gsellman
0.298 — Justin Turner batting against Johnny Cueto
0.292 — Yadier Molina batting against Zach Davies
0.290 — Freddie Freeman batting against Robert Gsellman
0.286 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Cashner
0.284 — Jose Ramirez batting against Daniel Norris
0.284 — Jedd Gyorko batting against Zach Davies
0.283 — Odubel Herrera batting against Brett Anderson
0.282 — Corey Seager batting against Johnny Cueto

Cesar Hernandez doesn’t come up that high on the list much. The Phillies second baseman is off to a great start in his age 27 season, hitting for average, getting on base, and hitting for power, the last a new twist to his arsenal. The walks are the main reason he doesn’t usually rate higher, as they take away his chances for hits. On a day with a number of teams off, he rates very well.

The NN with Park sees the top prospects like this:

0.286, 0.728 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.301, 0.726 — Brandon Phillips batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.303, 0.715 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Brett Anderson.
0.298, 0.714 — Justin Turner batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.282, 0.707 — Corey Seager batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.284, 0.705 — Jose Ramirez batting against Daniel Norris.
0.292, 0.705 — Yadier Molina batting against Zach Davies.
0.290, 0.703 — Freddie Freeman batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.280, 0.703 — Michael Brantley batting against Daniel Norris.
0.278, 0.699 — Francisco Lindor batting against Daniel Norris.
0.260, 0.699 — Mookie Betts batting against Dylan Bundy.

Altuve comes out on top due to his better three-year weighted hit average. Hernandez and Brandon Phillips tie for the consensus choice, both averaging a rank of two. As always, you best choice will fail about 25% of the time.

These are the players who with the longest current streak of plate appearances without a hit:

Batter PA since Last Hit
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 23
Raul Mondesi 20
Sandy Leon 20
JaCoby Jones 19
Jesus Aguilar 18
Michael Freeman 16
Ryan Goins 16
Nick Hundley 15
Jaff Decker 15
Kyle Higashioka 15
Chris Gimenez 15
Danny Espinosa 15
Hunter Renfroe 15
Matt Davidson 14
Cristhian Adames 14
Ivan Nova 13
Kevin Kiermaier 13
Neil Walker 13
Leonys Martin 12
Patrick Corbin 12
Jhonny Peralta 12
Antonio Senzatela 12
Taylor Motter 12
Johnny Cueto 11
Jaime Garcia 11
Norichika Aoki 11
Matt Harvey 11
Curtis Granderson 11
Greg Bird 11
Jeremy Hazelbaker 11
Hunter Pence 11
Mitch Moreland 11
Nick Ahmed 11
Clayton Kershaw 11
Addison Russell 11
Jimmy Nelson 11
Jose Lobaton 11
Jon Lester 11
Lucas Duda 11
Starling Marte 11
Bronson Arroyo 10
Albert Pujols 10
Manuel Pina 10
J.J. Hardy 10
Jabari Blash 10
Stephen Strasburg 10
Chris Heisey 10
Jeff Samardzija 10
Aaron Altherr 10
Scott Feldman 10
Max Scherzer 10
Dan Vogelbach 10

Good luck!



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Monday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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