Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.303 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Brett Anderson
0.301 — Brandon Phillips batting against Robert Gsellman
0.298 — Justin Turner batting against Johnny Cueto
0.292 — Yadier Molina batting against Zach Davies
0.290 — Freddie Freeman batting against Robert Gsellman
0.286 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Cashner
0.284 — Jose Ramirez batting against Daniel Norris
0.284 — Jedd Gyorko batting against Zach Davies
0.283 — Odubel Herrera batting against Brett Anderson
0.282 — Corey Seager batting against Johnny Cueto

Cesar Hernandez doesn’t come up that high on the list much. The Phillies second baseman is off to a great start in his age 27 season, hitting for average, getting on base, and hitting for power, the last a new twist to his arsenal. The walks are the main reason he doesn’t usually rate higher, as they take away his chances for hits. On a day with a number of teams off, he rates very well.

The NN with Park sees the top prospects like this:

0.286, 0.728 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.301, 0.726 — Brandon Phillips batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.303, 0.715 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Brett Anderson.
0.298, 0.714 — Justin Turner batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.282, 0.707 — Corey Seager batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.284, 0.705 — Jose Ramirez batting against Daniel Norris.
0.292, 0.705 — Yadier Molina batting against Zach Davies.
0.290, 0.703 — Freddie Freeman batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.280, 0.703 — Michael Brantley batting against Daniel Norris.
0.278, 0.699 — Francisco Lindor batting against Daniel Norris.
0.260, 0.699 — Mookie Betts batting against Dylan Bundy.

Altuve comes out on top due to his better three-year weighted hit average. Hernandez and Brandon Phillips tie for the consensus choice, both averaging a rank of two. As always, you best choice will fail about 25% of the time.

These are the players who with the longest current streak of plate appearances without a hit:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	20
Sandy Leon	20
JaCoby Jones	19
Jesus Aguilar	18
Michael Freeman	16
Ryan Goins	16
Nick Hundley	15
Jaff Decker	15
Kyle Higashioka	15
Chris Gimenez	15
Danny Espinosa	15
Hunter Renfroe	15
Matt Davidson	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Ivan Nova	13
Kevin Kiermaier	13
Neil Walker	13
Leonys Martin	12
Patrick Corbin	12
Jhonny Peralta	12
Antonio Senzatela	12
Taylor Motter	12
Johnny Cueto	11
Jaime Garcia	11
Norichika Aoki	11
Matt Harvey	11
Curtis Granderson	11
Greg Bird	11
Jeremy Hazelbaker	11
Hunter Pence	11
Mitch Moreland	11
Nick Ahmed	11
Clayton Kershaw	11
Addison Russell	11
Jimmy Nelson	11
Jose Lobaton	11
Jon Lester	11
Lucas Duda	11
Starling Marte	11
Bronson Arroyo	10
Albert Pujols	10
Manuel Pina	10
J.J. Hardy	10
Jabari Blash	10
Stephen Strasburg	10
Chris Heisey	10
Jeff Samardzija	10
Aaron Altherr	10
Scott Feldman	10
Max Scherzer	10
Dan Vogelbach	10

Good luck!

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