Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.327 — Zack Cozart batting against Josh Tomlin
0.312 — Eugenio Suarez batting against Josh Tomlin
0.311 — Scooter Gennett batting against Josh Tomlin
0.311 — Welington Castillo batting against Kyle Gibson
0.310 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zach Eflin
0.307 — Jose Peraza batting against Josh Tomlin
0.304 — Joey Votto batting against Josh Tomlin
0.301 — Buster Posey batting against John Lackey
0.299 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Zach Eflin
0.298 — Adam Frazier batting against Mike Foltynewicz

Tomlin allows a .321 BA and a .337 OBP this season. He gives up lots of hits and very few walks, exactly the perfect pitcher to keep a hit streak going. Cozart is having a career year and comes up number one on a day with an abbreviated schedule.

The NN with Park comes up with a bit of a different list:

0.310, 0.739 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zach Eflin.
0.299, 0.731 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Zach Eflin.
0.297, 0.723 — David Peralta batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.301, 0.720 — Buster Posey batting against John Lackey.
0.327, 0.719 — Zack Cozart batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.293, 0.715 — Corey Dickerson batting against J.C. Ramirez.
0.288, 0.714 — Matt Kemp batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.297, 0.714 — Chris Owings batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.277, 0.713 — Starlin Castro batting against Jason Vargas.
0.298, 0.713 — Adam Frazier batting against Mike Foltynewicz.

The better long-term hitters move past Cozart on this list, and almost all the other Reds are eliminated. Cozart and Blackmon tie for consensus pick. This is a tough day to make a choice. As always, your best choice will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Luis Valbuena	27
Raul Mondesi	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Ivan Nova	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
JaCoby Jones	19
Johnny Cueto	19
Conor Gillaspie	19
Tyler Anderson	18
Daniel Santana	18
Matt Harvey	17
Scott Feldman	17
Daniel Straily	16
Austin Romine	16
Gorkys Hernandez	16
Patrick Kivlehan	16
Yonder Alonso	16
Greg Bird	15
Amir Garrett	15
Johnathan Williamson	15
Miguel Montero	15
Wil Myers	15
Christian Yelich	15
Tyler Collins	15
Chris Carter	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Leury Garcia	14
R.A. Dickey	13
Tanner Roark	13
Raimel Tapia	13
Leonys Martin	12
Travis D'Arnaud	12
Julio Teheran	12
Kyle Hendricks	12
Mike Foltynewicz	12
Bartolo Colon	12
Brandon McCarthy	12
Adam Rosales	12
Dexter Fowler	12
Yulieski Gurriel	11
Starling Marte	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Shin-Soo Choo	11
Michael Saunders	11
Timothy Beckham	11
Zack Greinke	11
Chad Kuhl	11
Craig Gentry	11
Eddie Rosario	11
Byron Buxton	11
Guillermo Heredia	11
Michael Wacha	11
Thomas Koehler	10
Jarrod Dyson	10
Gregor Blanco	10
Reymond Fuentes	10
Stuart Turner	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Norichika Aoki	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Justin Upton	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Trevor Plouffe	10
Yangervis Solarte	10
Ichiro Suzuki	10
Jered Weaver	10

Good luck!

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