For those of you following the daily Beat the Streak posts, I’ve mentioned a number of times how it appears that the three-year weighted hit average for the batter appears to dominate the other parameters. I was thinking about this today, and figured I could test this by setting all the parameters to the current league hit average of .222, then varying them over a range of averages. If the only thing different was the three-year hit average, how would that change the probability.
I used a range of hit averages between .150 and .330. The results are in this Google spreadsheet, and summarized on the graph of probabilities tab. As you can see, the parameter with the steepest slope belongs to the batter three year hit average. The Current year batter and the three year pitcher are about the same, followed in importance by the one year pitcher hit average allowed and the park hit average.
I am also happy to find that all the parameters move the probabilities higher as the they increase. I would have been a bit worried if there was a negative effect. Basically, the batter is the most important factor in determining the probability of a hit in a game.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2qD8LVG
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