Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.334 — Adam Frazier batting against Bartolo Colon
0.330 — Chris Owings batting against Zach Davies
0.330 — David Peralta batting against Zach Davies
0.328 — Josh Harrison batting against Bartolo Colon
0.319 — Brandon Drury batting against Zach Davies
0.311 — Matt Kemp batting against Ivan Nova
0.310 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Zach Davies
0.305 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Nick Martinez
0.304 — Brandon Phillips batting against Ivan Nova
0.302 — Buster Posey batting against Eddie Butler

Adam Frazier has not played much, just 66 games in his rookie year of 2016 and 27 games this season. He hit consistently well, however, and this season owns a .370/.458/.500 slash line and .328/.397/.445 for his career. That’s in 267 PA, so both his 2017 and three year hit averages are being heavily adjusted toward the league averages at this point. Still, against a pitcher who is usually throwing over the plate, he makes a good match-up.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.330, 0.739 — David Peralta batting against Zach Davies.
0.305, 0.737 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Nick Martinez.
0.286, 0.735 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ariel Miranda.
0.296, 0.734 — Jean Segura batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.296, 0.733 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.302, 0.732 — Buster Posey batting against Eddie Butler.
0.330, 0.731 — Chris Owings batting against Zach Davies.
0.334, 0.731 — Adam Frazier batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.328, 0.730 — Josh Harrison batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.304, 0.728 — Brandon Phillips batting against Ivan Nova.

David Peralta bubbles to the top of the NN rankings, with Frazier dropping to eighth. If Frazier keeps hitting well, we should see him moving up steadily. Davies is giving up a ton of hits this season, even in games where he collects a high number of strikeouts. For today, Peralta is the NN pick and the consensus pick. Fair warning, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Gorkys Hernandez	23
Ivan Nova	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Dexter Fowler	22
Johnny Cueto	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
JaCoby Jones	19
Justin Upton	19
Conor Gillaspie	19
Austin Romine	19
Matt Harvey	19
Scott Feldman	19
Tyler Anderson	18
Adam Rosales	17
Patrick Kivlehan	16
Daniel Straily	16
Greg Bird	15
Eddie Rosario	15
Christian Arroyo	15
Carlos Sanchez	15
Kyle Hendricks	14
Julio Teheran	14
Mike Foltynewicz	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Yasiel Puig	14
Zack Greinke	14
Avisail Garcia	13
Raimel Tapia	13
Travis D'Arnaud	13
Freddy Galvis	13
Luke Maile	12
Nick Castellanos	12
Bartolo Colon	12
Carlos Correa	12
Leonys Martin	12
Mark Canha	12
Ty Blach	12
Brandon McCarthy	12
Roberto Perez	12
Chad Kuhl	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Elvis Andrus	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Brock Stassi	11
Starling Marte	11
Craig Gentry	11
Robert Gsellman	11
Austin Barnes	11
Ezequiel Carrera	11
Michael Wacha	11
Danny Espinosa	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Seth Smith	10
Matt Garza	10
Alex Avila	10
Adam Jones	10
Jose Ramirez	10
Stuart Turner	10
Martin Maldonado	10
Eric Hosmer	10
Lonnie Chisenhall	10
Thomas Koehler	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Emilio Bonifacio	10
Joe Panik	10
Jered Weaver	10
Scott Schebler	10

Good luck!

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