Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.314 — Zack Cozart batting against Tyler Anderson
0.312 — Justin Turner batting against Justin Nicolino
0.307 — Chris Owings batting against Jered Weaver
0.305 — Brandon Drury batting against Jered Weaver
0.303 — Buster Posey batting against Michael Wacha
0.301 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kendall Graveman
0.297 — Jean Segura batting against Jose Quintana
0.296 — David Peralta batting against Jered Weaver
0.296 — Daniel Murphy batting against R.A. Dickey
0.295 — Jose Altuve batting against Trevor Bauer
0.295 — Jose Peraza batting against Tyler Anderson
Cozart, at seasonal age 31, is off to a start that might lead to his best season at the plate. Note that he has not changed his ball in play pattern; there’s no evidence he’s lofting the ball more, or even hitting more line drives. He strikes me as someone who should regress quite a bit toward his career averages as the season progresses. Tyler Anderson has been hit harder on the road than at home this season.
The NN with Park sees the top ten like this:
0.296, 0.738 — Daniel Murphy batting against R.A. Dickey.
0.297, 0.737 — Jean Segura batting against Jose Quintana.
0.312, 0.734 — Justin Turner batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.303, 0.733 — Buster Posey batting against Michael Wacha.
0.301, 0.730 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.295, 0.727 — Jose Altuve batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.305, 0.720 — Brandon Drury batting against Jered Weaver.
0.287, 0.717 — Mookie Betts batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.307, 0.715 — Christopher Owings batting against Jered Weaver.
0.272, 0.714 — Charles Blackmon batting against Lisalberto Bonilla.
0.314, 0.714 — Zack Cozart batting against Tyler Anderson.
The NN puts much more weight on the batter’s three-year weighted hit average, which is why Cozart drops to the bottom of the top ten. It’s tough to take any hitter against a knuckleball pitcher, since the unpredictability soars, so I will spend some time today deciding if I actually want to take Murphy as my pick. Justin Turner is the consensus choice. As always, your top pick will likely fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here are the players with active hitless streaks, most PA without a hit:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2ryGg8R
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