Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.363 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Adam Wainwright
0.349 — Daniel Murphy batting against Clayton Richard
0.337 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Clayton Richard
0.330 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Adam Wainwright
0.323 — Nolan Arenado batting against Adam Wainwright
0.322 — Mark Reynolds batting against Adam Wainwright
0.315 — Buster Posey batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.315 — Alexi Amarista batting against Adam Wainwright
0.311 — Bryce Harper batting against Clayton Richard
0.310 — Chris Owings batting against Chase Anderson

Blackmon is coming off a strong night in which he went four for four, missing the cycle by a double. He hit his twelfth home run and his seventh triple. With 11 doubles, he’s now slugging .634 on the season. For our purposes, he’s also over 200 PA for the season, so his 2017 hit average of .311 is getting full credit. As a point of historical comparison, Joe DiMaggio held a career .311 hit average going into the 1941 season. Wainwright has become a very hittable pitcher. To top it all off, against pitchers Blackmon faced at least 10 times, he has the highest BA against Wainwright!

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.363, 0.777 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.349, 0.768 — Daniel Murphy batting against Clayton Richard.
0.330, 0.749 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.303, 0.742 — Jean Segura batting against Brian Johnson.
0.323, 0.731 — Nolan Arenado batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.337, 0.730 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Clayton Richard.
0.315, 0.730 — Buster Posey batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.287, 0.727 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Rob Whalen.
0.322, 0.723 — Mark Reynolds batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.310, 0.722 — Chris Owings batting against Chase Anderson.

Murphy computed to a very high probability yesterday, and Blackmon tops that today. Blackmon is the unanimous first choice, and Murphy the unanimous second choice. It might be a good day to double down. As always, however, your best pick has around a 25% chance of not getting a hit.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Ivan Nova	27
Gorkys Hernandez	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Johnny Cueto	21
Christian Arroyo	21
Tyler Anderson	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
JaCoby Jones	19
Matt Harvey	19
Conor Gillaspie	19
Scott Feldman	19
Travis D'Arnaud	17
Patrick Kivlehan	17
Eric Thames	16
Taylor Motter	16
Danny Espinosa	15
Greg Bird	15
Ezequiel Carrera	15
Joe Panik	14
Zack Greinke	14
Kyle Hendricks	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Julio Teheran	14
Seth Smith	14
Mike Foltynewicz	14
Adam Jones	14
Buster Posey	13
Mark Trumbo	13
Bartolo Colon	13
Michael Wacha	13
Raimel Tapia	13
Derek Norris	13
Miguel Sano	13
Jefry Marte	12
Brock Stassi	12
Mike Zunino	12
Roberto Perez	12
Luke Maile	12
Brandon McCarthy	12
Leonys Martin	12
Chad Kuhl	12
Billy Hamilton	12
Ty Blach	12
Ben Revere	12
Danny Ortiz	11
Emilio Bonifacio	11
Willson Contreras	11
Jonathan Villar	11
Austin Barnes	11
Timothy Adleman	11
Starling Marte	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Todd Frazier	11
Robert Gsellman	11
Cameron Rupp	11
Craig Gentry	11
Wil Myers	10
Thomas Koehler	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Derek Dietrich	10
Stuart Turner	10
Alex Wood	10
Matt Garza	10
Devin Mesoraco	10
Erick Aybar	10
Jered Weaver	10
Ryan Braun	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Lonnie Chisenhall	10
Luis Sardinas	10

Good luck!

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