Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.340 — Jose Altuve batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.323 — Avisail Garcia batting against Patrick Corbin
0.314 — Chris Owings batting against Dylan Covey
0.312 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zach Eflin
0.312 — Jean Segura batting against Joe Ross
0.309 — David Peralta batting against Dylan Covey
0.305 — Josh Reddick batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.304 — Matt Kemp batting against Tyler Glasnow
0.303 — Daniel Murphy batting against Christian Bergman
0.300 — Brandon Drury batting against Dylan Covey

Both Altuve and Zimmermann produce hit averages much higher than the league average, with Zimmermann getting hit hard this season. The Log5 method also tends to like the Diamondbacks hitters against Dylan Covey.

Here is the top ten list produced by the NN with Park:

0.340, 0.754 — Jose Altuve batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.303, 0.751 — Daniel Murphy batting against Christian Bergman.
0.312, 0.742 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zach Eflin.
0.312, 0.742 — Jean Segura batting against Joe Ross.
0.297, 0.729 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Zach Eflin.
0.323, 0.729 — Avisail Garcia batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.309, 0.725 — David Peralta batting against Dylan Covey.
0.314, 0.722 — Chris Owings batting against Dylan Covey.
0.290, 0.719 — Starlin Castro batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.275, 0.719 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Andrew Cashner.

Daniel Murphy moves back to near the top of the list, but Altuve is the unanimous choice. Charlie Blackmon is the consensus second choice. As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Luis Valbuena	31
Michael Freeman	29
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Ivan Nova	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Gorkys Hernandez	20
Conor Gillaspie	19
Daniel Santana	19
Johnny Cueto	19
Scott Feldman	19
JaCoby Jones	19
Tyler Collins	18
Tyler Anderson	18
Matt Harvey	17
Daniel Straily	16
Austin Romine	16
Patrick Kivlehan	16
Yonder Alonso	16
Wil Myers	15
Johnathan Williamson	15
Miguel Montero	15
Amir Garrett	15
Christian Yelich	15
Greg Bird	15
Zack Greinke	14
Mike Foltynewicz	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Michael Saunders	14
R.A. Dickey	13
Lorenzo Cain	13
Reymond Fuentes	13
Tanner Roark	13
Raimel Tapia	13
Kyle Hendricks	12
Adam Rosales	12
Bartolo Colon	12
Julio Teheran	12
Carlos Correa	12
Dexter Fowler	12
Travis D'Arnaud	12
Brandon McCarthy	12
Ty Blach	12
Aaron Hicks	12
Leonys Martin	12
Guillermo Heredia	11
Eddie Rosario	11
Justin Upton	11
Chad Kuhl	11
Andrew McCutchen	11
Michael Wacha	11
Starling Marte	11
Shin-Soo Choo	11
Craig Gentry	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Scott Van Slyke	10
Thomas Koehler	10
Norichika Aoki	10
Gary Sanchez	10
Lonnie Chisenhall	10
Stuart Turner	10
Starlin Castro	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Aaron Judge	10
Ichiro Suzuki	10
Yandy Diaz	10
J.D. Martinez	10
Jarrod Dyson	10
Jered Weaver	10
Trevor Plouffe	10
Yangervis Solarte	10

Good luck!

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