Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.352 — Daniel Murphy batting against Bartolo Colon
0.339 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Bartolo Colon
0.319 — Jean Segura batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.319 — Chris Owings batting against Luis Perdomo
0.315 — Bryce Harper batting against Bartolo Colon
0.314 — Brandon Drury batting against Luis Perdomo
0.311 — Kevin Pillar batting against Kevin Gausman
0.307 — Corey Dickerson batting against Masahiro Tanaka
0.305 — David Peralta batting against Luis Perdomo
0.303 — Trea Turner batting against Bartolo Colon
Bartolo Colon turns 44 in a few days, and it looks like he reached the point where he’s not fooling anyone. Opponents own a .303/.344/.543 slash line against him. In previous seasons, he would allow a decently high batting average, but so few walks that players did not get on base well against him. This year, he’s so easy to hit that his low walk rate can’t save him. Murphy is 4 for 12 career against Colon, Zimmerman 3 for 10.
The NN with Park sees the top ten like this:
0.352, 0.770 — Daniel Murphy batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.319, 0.752 — Jean Segura batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.314, 0.731 — Brandon Drury batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.319, 0.731 — Chris Owings batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.339, 0.730 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.294, 0.728 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Timothy Adleman.
0.293, 0.726 — Starlin Castro batting against Matt Andriese.
0.305, 0.721 — David Peralta batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.303, 0.716 — Trea Turner batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.307, 0.715 — Corey Dickerson batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
It’s a very similar list, with Charlie Blackmon and Starlin Castro moving into the top ten. Daniel Murphy is the unanimous choice, with Jean Segura the consensus second choice. Segura’s hit streak ended Friday night with an 0 for 4 against the White Sox. As always, your best choice will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2rCtbeW
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