Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.326 — Corey Dickerson batting against Josh Tomlin
0.302 — Daniel Murphy batting against Gerrit Cole
0.301 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Martin Perez
0.299 — Kevin Pillar batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.297 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Gerrit Cole
0.293 — Jose Altuve batting against Jose Urena
0.292 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Mike Leake
0.290 — Justin Turner batting against Johnny Cueto
0.290 — Brandon Drury batting against Matt Harvey
0.287 — Chris Owings batting against Matt Harvey
0.285 — Mike Trout batting against Miguel A Gonzalez
0.285 — Jedd Gyorko batting against Rick Porcello
I went a bit past ten to pull in Mike Trout. Trout’s home run streak came to an end Tuesday night, as he walked three times in six plate appearances, and struck out twice, so he only put one ball in play. Trout cut down on his strikeouts a bit this season. With his high BABIP, lowering his strikeout rate should help his hit average a great deal. Dickerson had an off-year in 2016, but returned to form in 2017, and may be having his best year at the plate. Tomlin is getting hammered this season, hence, Dickerson moving to the top of the list.
The NN with Park sees the top players like this:
0.302, 0.742 — Daniel Murphy batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.292, 0.730 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Mike Leake.
0.293, 0.728 — Jose Altuve batting against Jose Urena.
0.326, 0.728 — Corey Dickerson batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.273, 0.726 — Jean Segura batting against Jesse Hahn.
0.290, 0.717 — Brandon Drury batting against Matt Harvey.
0.299, 0.715 — Kevin Pillar batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.276, 0.713 — Mookie Betts batting against Mike Leake.
0.290, 0.712 — Justin Turner batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.301, 0.710 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Martin Perez.
0.297, 0.707 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.287, 0.707 — Chris Owings batting against Matt Harvey.
I like to point out that the NN appears to put the most emphasis on the weighted three-year hit average of the batter. In the case of Dickerson, both the one-year regressed hit averages of the pitcher and batter are high, so those parameters can also bring a batter to the top of the list. Daniel Murphy, however, is the consensus pick. Murphy also took the day off on Tuesday for some extra rest. As always, your best picks will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of batters currently with the most consecutive plate appearances without a hit:
Tyler Collins hits like he should be at the top of the list. He owns a low batting average, walks a decent amount, and strikes out a lot. He doesn’t put the ball in play, and when he does his results are poor.
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2pTsa1t
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