Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.356 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luis Perdomo
0.343 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Luis Perdomo
0.331 — Jose Altuve batting against Kevin Gausman
0.316 — Bryce Harper batting against Luis Perdomo
0.313 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Yovani Gallardo
0.313 — Matt Kemp batting against Matt Cain
0.308 — Trea Turner batting against Luis Perdomo
0.308 — Brandon Phillips batting against Matt Cain
0.304 — Starlin Castro batting against Kendall Graveman
0.301 — Ender Inciarte batting against Matt Cain
0.301 — Adam Lind batting against Luis Perdomo

I expected Murphy against Perdomo to set some kind of record for highest probability of getting a hit. Remember, this is the expected hit average, hits/PA. The expected batting average would be even higher. The Nationals should be looking at a good night.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.356, 0.774 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.331, 0.746 — Jose Altuve batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.313, 0.743 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.343, 0.737 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.308, 0.732 — Brandon Phillips batting against Matt Cain.
0.313, 0.727 — Matt Kemp batting against Matt Cain.
0.304, 0.726 — Starlin Castro batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.308, 0.723 — Trea Turner batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.264, 0.722 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.301, 0.722 — Ender Inciarte batting against Matt Cain.

Here is the parameter line for Perdomo versus Murphy:

Parameters: [‘0.274’, ‘0.291’, ‘0.288’, ‘0.296’, ‘0.227’, ‘0.230’]

The three-year weighted hit average for Perdomo is .291, for Murphy .296. Those are the parameters with the most weight, and both are very high. The league average is .227, the park average is .230. The .774 resulting probability is the highest seen so far this year, topping Murphy’s .770 from May 20th. Even with this extremely high probability, there is still a better than 20% chance that Murphy doesn’t get a hit on Friday.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Ivan Nova	27
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Gorkys Hernandez	23
Tyler Anderson	21
Johnny Cueto	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
Conor Gillaspie	19
JaCoby Jones	19
Matt Harvey	19
Scott Feldman	19
Austin Romine	19
Christian Arroyo	18
Adam Rosales	17
Travis D'Arnaud	17
Daniel Straily	16
Patrick Kivlehan	16
Carlos Sanchez	15
Greg Bird	15
Eddie Rosario	15
Joe Panik	14
Julio Teheran	14
Mike Foltynewicz	14
Kyle Hendricks	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Zack Greinke	14
Bartolo Colon	13
Michael Wacha	13
Avisail Garcia	13
Danny Espinosa	13
Raimel Tapia	13
Hanley Ramirez	13
Roberto Perez	12
Brandon McCarthy	12
Nick Castellanos	12
Luke Maile	12
Mark Canha	12
Taylor Motter	12
Leonys Martin	12
Ty Blach	12
Austin Barnes	11
Starling Marte	11
Eric Thames	11
Chad Kuhl	11
Robert Gsellman	11
Craig Gentry	11
Emilio Bonifacio	11
Ezequiel Carrera	11
Jefry Marte	11
Brock Stassi	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Scott Van Slyke	10
Odubel Herrera	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Seth Smith	10
Scott Schebler	10
Matt Garza	10
Lonnie Chisenhall	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Aaron Altherr	10
Stuart Turner	10
Martin Maldonado	10
Ryan Braun	10
Adam Jones	10
Eric Hosmer	10
Jered Weaver	10
Thomas Koehler	10
Jose Ramirez	10

Good luck!

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