Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.319 — Corey Dickerson batting against Martin Perez
0.317 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Moore
0.311 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Matt Moore
0.311 — Matt Kemp batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.309 — Zack Cozart batting against Marcus Stroman
0.309 — Travis Shaw batting against Robert Gsellman
0.302 — Manuel Pina batting against Robert Gsellman
0.300 — Chris Owings batting against Trevor Williams
0.300 — Hernan Perez batting against Robert Gsellman
0.298 — Eric Sogard batting against Robert Gsellman

Dickerson is having an MVP like season at the plate, and Perez allows a high BA, but also walks a good number of batters. Dickerson is the only Rays player making the list, as Tampa Bay in general uses players that favor walks over hits. In the AL, the team has a below average BA, but an above average OBP. That’s a poor formula for extending hit streaks.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.317, 0.749 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Moore.
0.288, 0.736 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.280, 0.734 — Jean Segura batting against Tyler Chatwood.
0.319, 0.733 — Corey Dickerson batting against Martin Perez.
0.311, 0.728 — Matt Kemp batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.297, 0.723 — Brandon Phillips batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.296, 0.718 — David Peralta batting against Trevor Williams.
0.300, 0.716 — Chris Owings batting against Trevor Williams.
0.269, 0.716 — Xander Bogaerts batting against David Holmberg.
0.311, 0.714 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Matt Moore.

Note that the Brewers against Gsellman fall off the list. Gsellman’s 2017 hit average is high, but that’s the fourth ranked of the six parameters used by the NN. The Log5 method ranks the five parameters it uses fairly evenly. Daniel Murphy is the consensus pick, but he has missed a few games due to a stomach bug. Dickerson would be the consensus second choice. As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Ivan Nova	27
Johnny Cueto	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Scott Feldman	21
Christian Arroyo	21
Tyler Anderson	21
Eric Thames	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
Taylor Motter	19
Conor Gillaspie	19
Buster Posey	17
Danny Espinosa	16
Zack Greinke	16
Chris Carter	15
Mike Zunino	15
Mike Foltynewicz	15
Luke Maile	15
Greg Bird	15
Ben Revere	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Kyle Hendricks	14
Julio Teheran	14
Cameron Rupp	14
J.D. Martinez	14
Dansby Swanson	14
Adam Jones	14
Brandon McCarthy	14
Brock Stassi	13
Erick Aybar	13
Mookie Betts	13
Michael Wacha	13
Emilio Bonifacio	13
Raimel Tapia	13
Bartolo Colon	13
Christopher Herrmann	12
Chad Kuhl	12
Rajai Davis	12
Kyle Schwarber	12
Logan Forsythe	12
Leonys Martin	12
Timothy Adleman	11
Carlos Gonzalez	11
Lance Lynn	11
Brian McCann	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Zack Wheeler	11
Robert Gsellman	11
Craig Gentry	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Starling Marte	11
Yan Gomes	11
Thomas Koehler	10
Erik Gonzalez	10
Ryan Braun	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Alex Wood	10
Aaron Hill	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Stuart Turner	10
Matthew Adams	10
Yasmany Tomas	10
Chris Gimenez	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Kennys Vargas	10
Gregor Blanco	10
Jered Weaver	10
Tyler Collins	10
Lonnie Chisenhall	10
Max Kepler-Rozycki	10
Matt Garza	10
Devin Mesoraco	10

Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2r3XkWI