Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.337 — Jean Segura batting against Dylan Covey
0.318 — Daniel Murphy batting against Tyler Glasnow
0.316 — Welington Castillo batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.312 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Tyler Glasnow
0.310 — Wil Myers batting against Zach Davies
0.309 — Matt Kemp batting against Marcus Stroman
0.305 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.304 — Starlin Castro batting against Daniel Duffy
0.302 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Martin Perez
0.301 — Freddie Freeman batting against Marcus Stroman
0.300 — Nelson Cruz batting against Dylan Covey
0.300 — Adam Jones batting against Jordan Zimmermann

Freeman probably won’t play today, as he is scheduled for an MRI.

Here is list produced by the NN with Park:

0.337, 0.755 — Jean Segura batting against Dylan Covey.
0.318, 0.747 — Daniel Murphy batting against Tyler Glasnow.
0.304, 0.728 — Starlin Castro batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.292, 0.726 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Sonny Gray.
0.276, 0.721 — Charles Blackmon batting against Jose Berrios.
0.294, 0.718 — Justin Turner batting against Edinson Volquez.
0.309, 0.716 — Matt Kemp batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.299, 0.716 — Brandon Phillips batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.293, 0.716 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.316, 0.714 — Welington Castillo batting against Jordan Zimmermann.

It’s a Jean Segura day! He is hot, with the longest current hit streak in the majors. Please remember, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here are the players with active hitless streaks, most PA without a hit:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Andrew Benintendi	32
Michael Freeman	26
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	20
Ivan Nova	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
JaCoby Jones	19
Robbie Grossman	19
Chris Coghlan	19
Ryan Schimpf	19
Conor Gillaspie	19
Johnny Cueto	19
Alen Hanson	18
Ryan Goins	17
Scott Feldman	17
Matt Harvey	17
James Gosewisch	17
Yonder Alonso	16
Daniel Santana	16
Luis Valbuena	16
Jed Lowrie	15
Gorkys Hernandez	15
Omar Narvaez	15
Greg Bird	15
Cristhian Adames	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Tyler Anderson	14
Amir Garrett	14
Miguel Montero	14
Jeremy Hellickson	13
Derek Dietrich	13
Javier Baez	13
Daniel Straily	13
Austin Romine	12
Scott Schebler	12
Leonys Martin	12
Mike Foltynewicz	12
Evan Longoria	12
Joc Pederson	12
Nick Castellanos	12
Kyle Hendricks	12
Jhonny Peralta	12
Khristopher Davis	12
Taijuan Walker	12
Travis D'Arnaud	12
Zack Greinke	11
Starling Marte	11
Julio Teheran	11
Tanner Roark	11
Orlando Arcia	11
R.A. Dickey	11
A.J. Ellis	11
David Freese	11
Jaime Garcia	11
Craig Gentry	11
Chad Kuhl	10
J.J. Hardy	10
Patrick Kivlehan	10
T.J. Rivera	10
Carlos Santana	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Jered Weaver	10
Dan Vogelbach	10
Brandon McCarthy	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Thomas Koehler	10
Bartolo Colon	10

Andrew Benintendi would be an interesting pick. He’s a good, young hitter in a slump, and sooner or later he’ll break out of it. The NN gives him a .650 probability of getting a hit in the game today.

Good luck!

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