Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.317 — Kris Bryant batting against Adam Wainwright
0.310 — Jon Jay batting against Adam Wainwright
0.309 — Avisail Garcia batting against Jered Weaver
0.303 — Javier Baez batting against Adam Wainwright
0.303 — Starlin Castro batting against Michael Fiers
0.302 — Albert Almora batting against Adam Wainwright
0.300 — Miguel Montero batting against Adam Wainwright
0.297 — A.J. Pollock batting against Ivan Nova
0.297 — Brandon Drury batting against Ivan Nova
0.293 — Tommy La Stella batting against Adam Wainwright
0.292 — Starlin Castro batting against Charlie Morton
You can double down on Starlin Castro! Kris Bryant is ill with a flu that is going through the Cubs, so be careful picking from that team today.
Here is how the NN with Park sees the best picks today.
0.289, 0.737 — Daniel Murphy batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.285, 0.735 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.289, 0.728 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matt Andriese.
0.297, 0.726 — A.J. Pollock batting against Ivan Nova.
0.297, 0.722 — Brandon Drury batting against Ivan Nova.
0.303, 0.721 — Starlin Castro batting against Michael Fiers.
0.285, 0.720 — Jose Altuve batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.274, 0.719 — Jean Segura batting against Aaron Sanchez.
0.292, 0.716 — Starlin Castro batting against Charlie Morton.
0.277, 0.716 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Andriese.
0.309, 0.711 — Avisail Garcia batting against Jered Weaver.
0.280, 0.709 — Buster Posey batting against Timothy Adleman.
0.317, 0.709 — Kris Bryant batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.286, 0.709 — David Peralta batting against Ivan Nova.
The NN wants you to double down with Daniel Murphy. Velasquez is pitching the night-cap. It’s tough with double headers, since you don’t know if a manager will rest a player or not. Murphy doesn’t even make the Log5 list, and Bryant is the only Cubs player to make the NN list. So there is a huge disagreement today. Starlin Castro against Mike Fiers, the early game, is the consensus pick.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of players currently with the longest streak of plate appearances without a hit:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2qFBn1m
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