Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
In Beat the Streak news, use Kaema saw his streak end at 51 games. He selected Kevin Pillar, the top pick from yesterday, and Ezequiel Carrera. Pillar recorded a hit but Carrera did not. Kaema’s strategy appeared to be select the 1-2 hitters against a bad pitcher. They would get the most opportunities to get a hit. It worked well.
On to today. First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.335 — Charles Blackmon batting against Phil Hughes
0.329 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Phil Hughes
0.325 — Brandon Drury batting against Tom Milone
0.319 — Christopher Owings batting against Tom Milone
0.318 — Nolan Arenado batting against Phil Hughes
0.316 — Mark Reynolds batting against Phil Hughes
0.313 — David Peralta batting against Tom Milone
0.311 — Starlin Castro batting against Jason Hammel
0.310 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chad Kuhl
0.310 — Hernan Perez batting against Clayton Richard
0.303 — Gerardo Parra batting against Phil Hughes
0.303 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Chad Kuhl
Log5 likes the Rockies against Phil Hughes, a pitcher who is usually around the plate.
The NN with Park produces this top 10 list:
0.335, 0.751 — Charles Blackmon batting against Phil Hughes.
0.329, 0.750 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Phil Hughes.
0.310, 0.744 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.325, 0.736 — Brandon Drury batting against Tom Milone.
0.318, 0.728 — Nolan Arenado batting against Phil Hughes.
0.311, 0.725 — Starlin Castro batting against Jason Hammel.
0.293, 0.724 — Jose Altuve batting against Thomas Koehler.
0.274, 0.724 — Jean Segura batting against Andrew Triggs.
0.313, 0.723 — David Peralta batting against Tom Milone.
0.319, 0.723 — Christopher Owings batting against Tom Milone.
0.316, 0.717 — Mark Reynolds batting against Phil Hughes.
The NN likes the Rockies, too, with Charlie Blackmon the consensus pick. As always, you best pick will fail to get a hit about 75% of the time.
Here is the list of longest current streaks of plate appearances without a hit:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2pRDzho
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