Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.348 — Buster Posey batting against Adam Wainwright
0.347 — Chris Owings batting against Clayton Richard
0.341 — David Peralta batting against Clayton Richard
0.334 — Brandon Drury batting against Clayton Richard
0.321 — Eric Hosmer batting against Phil Hughes
0.320 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Adam Wainwright
0.316 — Mike Trout batting against Tom Milone
0.315 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Phil Hughes
0.313 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Clayton Richard
0.311 — Avisail Garcia batting against Dillon Overton
Posey suffered no ill effects from the concussion. He hit well when he played in April, and in about the same number of May plate appearances, hit even better. Wainwright is now a very hittable pitcher.
The NN with Park sees the top of the list this way:
0.348, 0.752 — Buster Posey batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.341, 0.744 — David Peralta batting against Clayton Richard.
0.347, 0.744 — Chris Owings batting against Clayton Richard.
0.286, 0.737 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.310, 0.737 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Bronson Arroyo.
0.334, 0.735 — Brandon Drury batting against Clayton Richard.
0.320, 0.724 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.311, 0.723 — Avisail Garcia batting against Dillon Overton.
0.315, 0.723 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Phil Hughes.
0.321, 0.722 — Eric Hosmer batting against Phil Hughes.
There is good agreement at the top of the list. Posey is the unanimous first choice. It looks like the Diamondbacks are a good place to find a double down. Remember, if you pick a Royal or Twins player, they are involved in a double header, so make sure you choose the correct game. As always, your best pick has a 25% chance of not getting a hit.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2qDOezQ
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