Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.325 — Starlin Castro batting against Jason Hammel
0.316 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Martin Perez
0.309 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Norris
0.306 — Corey Dickerson batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.295 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Martin Perez
0.295 — Didi Gregorius batting against Jason Hammel
0.294 — Mookie Betts batting against Martin Perez
0.294 — Kevin Pillar batting against Matt Garza
0.293 — Matt Kemp batting against Trevor Williams
0.293 — Wil Myers batting against Robert Gsellman

Hammel allows a .320 BA this season, and while the neither of these methods take into account handedness, right-handed batters are hitting .387 against Hammel. The middle of the Yankees infield, Castro and Gregorious are having outstanding seasons at the plate.

Here is how the NN with Park sees the rankings:

0.316, 0.741 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Martin Perez.
0.290, 0.738 — Daniel Murphy batting against Sam J Gaviglio.
0.309, 0.735 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Norris.
0.325, 0.735 — Starlin Castro batting against Jason Hammel.
0.286, 0.728 — Jean Segura batting against Tanner Roark.
0.277, 0.726 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.306, 0.722 — Corey Dickerson batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.294, 0.720 — Mookie Betts batting against Martin Perez.
0.295, 0.719 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Martin Perez.
0.285, 0.714 — Brandon Phillips batting against Trevor Williams.
0.294, 0.714 — Kevin Pillar batting against Matt Garza.

Bogaerts is a better hitter than Castro over the long terms, so he moves to the top and becomes the consensus pick also. Bogaerts is just one for ten against Perez, however. He has not struck out in those 10 at bats, however. As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Gorkys Hernandez	23
Ivan Nova	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Johnny Cueto	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
Matt Harvey	19
Daniel Santana	19
Tyler Collins	19
Scott Feldman	19
JaCoby Jones	19
Austin Romine	19
Conor Gillaspie	19
Wil Myers	19
Tyler Anderson	18
Dexter Fowler	17
Andrew McCutchen	16
Patrick Kivlehan	16
Daniel Straily	16
Greg Bird	15
Justin Upton	15
Johnathan Williamson	15
Miguel Montero	15
Michael Saunders	15
Adam Rosales	14
Zack Greinke	14
Trevor Plouffe	14
Mike Foltynewicz	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Tanner Roark	13
Raimel Tapia	13
George Springer	13
Jarrod Dyson	13
Travis D'Arnaud	12
Kyle Hendricks	12
Ty Blach	12
Ian Kinsler	12
Chris Davis	12
Nick Castellanos	12
Carlos Correa	12
Brandon McCarthy	12
Leonys Martin	12
Bartolo Colon	12
Julio Teheran	12
Christian Arroyo	11
Steven Souza	11
Starling Marte	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Eddie Rosario	11
Guillermo Heredia	11
Corey Seager	11
Chad Kuhl	11
Gary Sanchez	11
Craig Gentry	11
Michael Wacha	11
Ezequiel Carrera	11
Yasiel Puig	11
Mark Canha	11
Norichika Aoki	10
Carlos Sanchez	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Jered Weaver	10
Thomas Koehler	10
Austin Barnes	10
Stuart Turner	10
Lonnie Chisenhall	10
Brock Stassi	10

Good luck!

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