Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.337 — Starlin Castro batting against Kevin Gausman
0.333 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Cain
0.324 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Matt Cain
0.315 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.315 — Chris Owings batting against Chad Kuhl
0.315 — Eric Hosmer batting against Matt Boyd
0.314 — David Peralta batting against Chad Kuhl
0.311 — Didi Gregorius batting against Kevin Gausman
0.306 — Aaron Judge batting against Kevin Gausman
0.305 — Matt Kemp batting against Jesse Chavez
0.305 — Brandon Drury batting against Chad Kuhl
0.305 — Whit Merrifield batting against Matt Boyd

A number of Yankees make the list against Kevin Gausman, including Starlin Castro at the top. Aaron Judge makes the list as his excellent 2017 season is starting to dominate is weak 2016 cup of coffee. Whit Merrifield also appears. Merrifield currently owns the longest hit streak in the majors at 15 games, and is hitting a torrid .404/.446/.654 in that time.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.333, 0.765 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Cain.
0.315, 0.751 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.337, 0.741 — Starlin Castro batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.297, 0.739 — Jean Segura batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.324, 0.731 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Matt Cain.
0.281, 0.730 — Jose Altuve batting against Hector Santiago.
0.314, 0.729 — David Peralta batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.273, 0.726 — Charlie Blackmon batting against James Paxton.
0.305, 0.725 — Matt Kemp batting against Jesse Chavez.
0.315, 0.722 — Chris Owings batting against Chad Kuhl.

Daniel Murphy rises to the top of this list as the usual cast of hitters filter up. Jean Segura, who had the highest probability of at least a hit in a game yesterday, went four for six against the Rockies. The series moves to Seattle tonight. Murphy is also the consensus pick. As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Johnny Cueto	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Cameron Rupp	22
Tyler Anderson	22
Scott Feldman	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
Brian McCann	20
Conor Gillaspie	19
Chris Carter	19
Ben Revere	18
Devin Mesoraco	18
Christopher Herrmann	17
Kyle Hendricks	16
Zack Greinke	16
Luke Maile	16
Erick Aybar	15
Mike Foltynewicz	15
Greg Bird	15
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Adam Jones	14
Brandon McCarthy	14
Chris Gimenez	14
Robert Gsellman	14
Michael Wacha	14
Keon Broxton	14
Nick Castellanos	14
Julio Teheran	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Kevin Pillar	13
Manny Machado	13
Bartolo Colon	13
Hanley Ramirez	13
Ben Zobrist	13
Raimel Tapia	13
Sandy Leon	12
Chad Kuhl	12
Jose Reyes	12
Matt Garza	12
Bryce Harper	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Trevor Plouffe	12
Brandon Moss	12
Leonys Martin	12
Craig Gentry	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Timothy Adleman	11
Starling Marte	11
Matt Moore	11
Zack Wheeler	11
Anthony Rizzo	11
Lance Lynn	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Chad Pinder	10
Erik Gonzalez	10
Lonnie Chisenhall	10
Zach Davies	10
Stuart Turner	10
Francisco Cervelli	10
Tyler Collins	10
Trevor Williams	10
Jered Weaver	10
Thomas Koehler	10
Kennys Vargas	10
Ryan Braun	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Denard Span	10
Ryan Rua	10
Ian Happ	10
Alex Wood	10
Luis Sardinas	10

Good luck!

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