Chris Sale is Still Good

Chris Sale struck out 11 in seven innings Saturday afternoon as the Red Sox defeat the Blue Jays in a blow out 7-1. Sale allowed four hits and a walk in his short shutout. He’s now struck out 166 and walked just 22 in 120 2/3 innings. He has now reached double digits in strikeouts in 11 of his 17 starts, and struck out nine in three other starts.

Sale is getting less contact inside and outside the strike zone. He is throwing the change-up more this season, and I suspect it is a very good one.

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Price Piqued

David Price received a talking to after an on-plane confrontation with Dennis Eckersley:

John Farrell, Dave Dombrowski, and David Price met before Friday night’s game over an incident in which Price verbally confronted NESN analyst Dennis Eckersley on the team flight from Boston to Toronto after Thursday night’s game.

Farrell confirmed the meeting but wouldn’t elaborate, indicating “it’s being handled internally.” The Red Sox manager also confirmed that Price would make his next start, but there was no indication what possible disciplinary action, if any, took place.

Price was one of many who indicated he didn’t want to speak on the matter.

There is speculation the problem was about Price’s failing to cover first on a ground ball. Eckersley’s pointed out the error, but also noted that he had done the same thing as a pitcher. It was polite criticism.

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Games of the Day

Tampa Bay and Baltimore continue their battle for third place in the AL East as Jake Odroizzi faces Dylan Bundy. Odorizzi seems to be typical of pitchers this year, good strikeout and walk numbers with a high amount of home runs allowed. Eleven of the 17 he allowed came at home, but he’s only pitched 1/3 of his innings away. His .490 road slugging percentage allowed is 31 points higher than his home number. Bundy is only a little better, with 15 home runs in 99 innings, with seven at home and eight on the road. This could be a 4-3 games where all the runs score on solo shots.

The Rockies try for two wins in a row as they send Tyler Chatwood against the Diamondbacks and Zack Greinke. Chatwood trades hits for walks as he allowed a .232 BA but a .335 OBP. Those numbers drop to .187 and .286 on the road. Greinkie walked 2 and struckout 23 Rockies in 20 1/3 innings, but five home runs allowed helped him to a 3.98 ERA against the division rivals.

Enjoy!

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Record Month

June 2017 set a record for total home runs in a month for the major leagues. Players delivered 1101 home runs, obliterating the previous record of 1069 from May of 2000.

Months with highest number of home runs. HRPct is per plate appearance.

Month	Season	Home Runs	HRPct
June	2017	1101	3.5
May	2000	1069	3.4
May	2017	1060	3.3
August	2016	1053	3.3
August	2004	1033	3.2
June	2016	1012	3.2
June	2001	995	3.1
June	2000	982	3.1
May	1999	980	3.0
August	2009	978	3.0

Four of those top ten seasons came in the last two years, so we are back to PED ERA home run levels, without a lot of positive PED tests. The optimistic take is that PEDs showed how far players could go, and they would have reached that level eventually.

Of course, since we are measuring total home runs, all of those record will occur since 1998, the year the league expanded to 30 teams. In terms of HRPct, June 2017 is still the highest month on the list. I thought we might see some months from 1993 to 1997 in there, but the highest month with less than 30 teams playing was May 1987. That month produced 811 home runs, 3.0% of PA. This June was a monster month.

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Players of the Month

Andrew McCutchen turned a great June up a notch, going five for five with two walks in his last two games to finish the month with a .411/.505/.689 slash line. That was the highest OBP in the majors (min 85 PA) and the highest batting average. A .400 BA is so tough to achieve, that I seldom see a player reach that level in a full month. Cody Bellinger, with 30 hits, nine doubles, and 13 home runs, posted the highest slugging percentage at .743. Of the sluggers, however, only Aaron Judge came close to matching McCutchen in terms of OBP, but Judge did it with lots of walks instead of lots of hits. Bellinger’s 13 home runs led the majors, while Jose Ramirez and Odubel Herrera each hit an MLB high 13 doubles, part of an outstanding month for the Indians third baseman. Trea Turner stole 22 bases in 26 attempts, but his month ended with a wrist injury, and he’ll be out of action for a while. Aaron Judge scored 30 runs to lead the majors, while Mike Zunino came out of nowhere to drive in 31.

McCutchen did everything well, however, and Andrew McCutchen is the Baseball Musings Offensive Player of the Month for June 2017.

The Nationals occupy both ends of the ERA leader board for the month of June, with Max Scherzer posting an MLB best 0.99 ERA for the month (min 26 IP) while Tanner Roark brings up the NL rear with a 8.31 mark. Scherzer’s main competition is Corey Kluber, with a 1.26 ERA, but pitching in the AL. Kluber performed better in all three-true outcome categories. Both pitchers kept the ball in the park, combining to allow just three home runs in a record setting month for dingers. Kluber also went 4-0 while Scherzer posted a 3-2 record.

As far was wins go, Jason Vargas comes in with a 6-0 record and a 1.98 ERA. His month was a bit unlikely, as he struck out just 5.05 batters per nine IP. His walks and home runs allowed were outstanding. Clayton Kershaw posted another great month, with a 5-0 record and 2.23 ERA despite allowing seven home runs.

Corey Knebel and Kenley Jansen each saved ten games, with Jansen with the more impressive overall numbers. Knebel did blow batters away in the month, making up for all the walks.

Even though Scherzer did post a better ERA. Kluber’s better three true outcomes and facing designated hitters wins the day. Corey Kluber is Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month for June 2017.

Congratulations to both players!

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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.338 — Daniel Murphy batting against Michael Wacha
0.332 — Jean Segura batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.329 — Justin Turner batting against Dillon Overton
0.324 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.322 — J.D. Martinez batting against Josh Tomlin
0.320 — Buster Posey batting against Chad Kuhl
0.320 — Ben Gamel batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.320 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Zach Davies
0.317 — Dee Gordon batting against Zach Davies
0.315 — Jose Ramirez batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.314 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Zach Davies
0.314 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Michael Wacha

The Indians and Tigers are playing a double header today. Be careful picking players from those games, as they often rest. Sometimes you might find yourself in a situation where they don’t start, but pinch hit and make an out, and your streak ends. In the Murphy versus Wacha matchup, Wacha is another Cardinals pitcher who is much better at home. On top of that Murphy is 3 for 14 against Wacha for his career.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.338, 0.771 — Daniel Murphy batting against Michael Wacha.
0.332, 0.757 — Jean Segura batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.329, 0.754 — Justin Turner batting against Dillon Overton.
0.324, 0.745 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.320, 0.742 — Buster Posey batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.315, 0.739 — Jose Ramirez batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.317, 0.734 — Dee Gordon batting against Zach Davies.
0.320, 0.733 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.313, 0.733 — Michael Brantley batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.278, 0.731 — Jose Altuve batting against Jordan Montgomery.

The NN likes Jose Ramirez, no matter who is pitching! Murphy is the unanimous choice, however. The two systems are in rare agreement on the top four batters.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Franchy Cordero	27
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Avisail Garcia	22
Eric Fryer	22
Allen Cordoba	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
Manny Machado	19
Peter Kozma	18
Mark Zagunis	18
David Freese	17
Franklin Barreto	16
Wilmer Flores	15
Rio Ruiz	15
C.J. Cron	15
Greg Bird	15
Lewis Brinson	14
Hyun Soo Kim	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Eric Thames	14
Christian Vazquez	13
Dexter Fowler	13
Alexi Amarista	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Nick Ahmed	12
Leonys Martin	12
Sam Travis	12
Aaron Judge	12
Welington Castillo	12
Brock Stassi	12
Max Moroff	12
Matt Holliday	12
Delino Deshields Jr.	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Corey Dickerson	12
Carlos Beltran	11
Danny Espinosa	11
Rob Refsnyder	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Brandon Moss	11
Starling Marte	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Daniel Santana	11
Patrick Kivlehan	11
Jose Lobaton	11
Mitch Moreland	11
Chase D'Arnaud	11
Tyler Collins	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Luke Maile	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Yonder Alonso	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Tom J Murphy	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Boog Powell	10
Khristopher Davis	10

Good luck!

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Saturday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

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