Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.338 — Daniel Murphy batting against Michael Wacha
0.332 — Jean Segura batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.329 — Justin Turner batting against Dillon Overton
0.324 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.322 — J.D. Martinez batting against Josh Tomlin
0.320 — Buster Posey batting against Chad Kuhl
0.320 — Ben Gamel batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.320 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Zach Davies
0.317 — Dee Gordon batting against Zach Davies
0.315 — Jose Ramirez batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.314 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Zach Davies
0.314 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Michael Wacha
The Indians and Tigers are playing a double header today. Be careful picking players from those games, as they often rest. Sometimes you might find yourself in a situation where they don’t start, but pinch hit and make an out, and your streak ends. In the Murphy versus Wacha matchup, Wacha is another Cardinals pitcher who is much better at home. On top of that Murphy is 3 for 14 against Wacha for his career.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.338, 0.771 — Daniel Murphy batting against Michael Wacha.
0.332, 0.757 — Jean Segura batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.329, 0.754 — Justin Turner batting against Dillon Overton.
0.324, 0.745 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.320, 0.742 — Buster Posey batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.315, 0.739 — Jose Ramirez batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.317, 0.734 — Dee Gordon batting against Zach Davies.
0.320, 0.733 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.313, 0.733 — Michael Brantley batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.278, 0.731 — Jose Altuve batting against Jordan Montgomery.
The NN likes Jose Ramirez, no matter who is pitching! Murphy is the unanimous choice, however. The two systems are in rare agreement on the top four batters.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2tvfFOx
No comments:
Post a Comment