Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.373 — Justin Turner batting against Bartolo Colon
0.351 — Chris Taylor batting against Bartolo Colon
0.343 — T.J. Rivera batting against Clayton Richard
0.342 — Corey Seager batting against Bartolo Colon
0.340 — Gerardo Parra batting against Mike Leake
0.338 — Wilmer Flores batting against Clayton Richard
0.334 — Scooter Gennett batting against Josh Tomlin
0.330 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Clayton Richard
0.327 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Mike Leake
0.322 — Jose Altuve batting against Vincent Velasquez
It’s almost never a bad night to pick Justin Turner. Colon gets hit hard this season, and he still walks few batters.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.322, 0.768 — Jose Altuve batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.373, 0.765 — Justin Turner batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.340, 0.763 — Gerardo Parra batting against Mike Leake.
0.327, 0.757 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Mike Leake.
0.316, 0.747 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Mike Leake.
0.343, 0.742 — T.J. Rivera batting against Clayton Richard.
0.342, 0.741 — Corey Seager batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.351, 0.740 — Chris Taylor batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.321, 0.740 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Martin Perez.
0.334, 0.739 — Scooter Gennett batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.313, 0.739 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Gerrit Cole.
The NN prefers Jose Altuve by just a little bit. Altuve is working on a long hit streak himself. The NN also likes the Rockies against Mike Leake, who allows quite a few hits despite his low ERA.
Turner is the consensus pick, however. Turner is only 2 for 14 versus Colon.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2uOxTLS
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