Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.312 — Justin Turner batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.301 — Starlin Castro batting against Felix Hernandez
0.293 — Elvis Andrus batting against Wade Miley
0.289 — Didi Gregorius batting against Felix Hernandez
0.287 — Jean Segura batting against Luis Severino
0.286 — Corey Seager batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.283 — Manuel Pina batting against Jameson Taillon
0.283 — Chris Taylor batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.281 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jhoulys Chacin
0.281 — Buster Posey batting against Jhoulys Chacin
Turner accumulated enough plate appearances and now leads the majors in batting average by a wide margin. Foltynewicz gives up hits to non-pitchers at a rate higher than average, but not terrible. It’s high enough on a day with a short schedule that Dodgers hitters will dominate the list.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.287, 0.742 — Jean Segura batting against Luis Severino.
0.312, 0.737 — Justin Turner batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.301, 0.720 — Starlin Castro batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.272, 0.717 — David Peralta batting against Luis Castillo.
0.281, 0.716 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.281, 0.715 — Buster Posey batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.286, 0.713 — Corey Seager batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.275, 0.712 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.293, 0.711 — Elvis Andrus batting against Wade Miley.
0.274, 0.710 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Francisco Liriano.
Severino is much better than Foltynewicz at preventing hits, but because Segura walks much less than Turner, Segura is more likely to generate a hit. The NN gives more weight to the batter’s hit average than the pitcher’s hit average, and Segura is better than Turner both on the one-year and three-year parameters. Turner is the consensus pick.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2uC5rN9
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