Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.372 — Gerardo Parra batting against Clayton Richard
0.361 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Clayton Richard
0.357 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Clayton Richard
0.345 — Jose Ramirez batting against Matt Cain
0.340 — Nolan Arenado batting against Clayton Richard
0.326 — Ian Desmond batting against Clayton Richard
0.325 — Michael Brantley batting against Matt Cain
0.315 — Trey Mancini batting against Martin Perez
0.314 — Elvis Andrus batting against Kevin Gausman
0.311 — Mark Reynolds batting against Clayton Richard

It would appear to be a good day to choose one of the Rockies hitters (and which one doesn’t matter that much) against Clayton Richard. Richard combines a low strikeout rate with a high BABIP allowed. On top of that, the game is in Coors Field, although the Log5 method does not make an adjustment for that.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.372, 0.780 — Gerardo Parra batting against Clayton Richard.
0.361, 0.775 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Clayton Richard.
0.357, 0.774 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Clayton Richard.
0.345, 0.758 — Jose Ramirez batting against Matt Cain.
0.340, 0.750 — Nolan Arenado batting against Clayton Richard.
0.285, 0.747 — Jose Altuve batting against James Paxton.
0.292, 0.744 — Jean Segura batting against Charlie Morton.
0.325, 0.736 — Michael Brantley batting against Matt Cain.
0.326, 0.730 — Ian Desmond batting against Clayton Richard.
0.255, 0.730 — Daniel Murphy batting against Alex Meyer.

The two systems line up pretty closely today, matching the top five. Parra is the unanimous pick and he is 5 for 16 career against Richard.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Franchy Cordero	27
Eric Fryer	24
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
John Jaso	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
Jorge Soler	18
Miguel Montero	18
Mark Zagunis	18
Brad Miller	17
Taylor Featherston	17
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Curtis Granderson	15
Greg Bird	15
Paul Janish	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Nicholas Franklin	14
Lewis Brinson	14
Kevan Smith	14
Darwin Barney	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Chris Coghlan	13
Xander Bogaerts	13
Nolan Fontana	12
Daniel Nava	12
Deven Marrero	12
Cliff Pennington	12
Martin Prado	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Leonys Martin	12
Rob Refsnyder	12
Brock Stassi	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Erick Aybar	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Russell Martin	11
Jae-Gyun Hwang	11
Devin Mesoraco	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Marcus Semien	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Jared W. Hoying	10
Joey Gallo	10
Brandon Moss	10
Mallex Smith	10
Yandy Diaz	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Adam Duvall	10
Carlos Gomez	10
Tyler Flowers	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Ryon Healy	10
Daniel Murphy	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Tyler Collins	10
Carlos Correa	10
Ender Inciarte	10
Keon Broxton	10
Jed Lowrie	10
Tom Murphy	10

Daniel Murphy appears due.

Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2teRXmp