Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.365 — Jose Altuve batting against Matt Boyd
0.327 — Daniel Murphy batting against German Marquez
0.321 — Justin Turner batting against Ty Blach
0.316 — Gerardo Parra batting against Tanner Roark
0.311 — A.J. Pollock batting against Mike Leake
0.311 — Marwin Gonzalez batting against Matt Boyd
0.310 — David Peralta batting against Mike Leake
0.310 — Adrian Beltre batting against Kevin Gausman
0.309 — Carlos Correa batting against Matt Boyd
0.309 — Chris Taylor batting against Ty Blach
Altuve is the hottest hitter on the planet, with a .524 BA during his 19-game hit streak after missing the cycle Friday night by a home run. Matt Boyd is a LHP who gives up hits equally poorly to right and left-handed batters, although right-handed batters hit him for power. In a very small sample size, Altuve is 2 for 5 against Boyd with a home run and no strikeouts.
It’s nice to see Adrian Beltre make the list as he sits two hits away from 3000. He’s been on a tear as he approaches the milestone, with multiple hits in four of his last five games. Gausman is the right-handed Boyd, as batters from both side of the plate are hitting over .300 against him.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.365, 0.793 — Jose Altuve batting against Matt Boyd.
0.327, 0.768 — Daniel Murphy batting against German Marquez.
0.316, 0.749 — Gerardo Parra batting against Tanner Roark.
0.311, 0.740 — A.J. Pollock batting against Mike Leake.
0.300, 0.738 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Tanner Roark.
0.310, 0.737 — David Peralta batting against Mike Leake.
0.321, 0.736 — Justin Turner batting against Ty Blach.
0.308, 0.736 — Jose Ramirez batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.291, 0.731 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Tanner Roark.
0.310, 0.728 — Adrian Beltre batting against Kevin Gausman.
So it’s a Jose Altuve day. His probability of getting at least a hit in the game is 25 points higher than Daniel Murphy. For the second day in a row, that probability is above .790. Wow.
In case you are wondering, the NN gives Bryce Harper a .697 probability of continuing his hit streak today.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
There are some big names near the top of the list today.
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2tS0RdN
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