Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.319 — Jose Altuve batting against Alex Cobb
0.306 — Ryon Healy batting against Matt Cain
0.302 — Jose Ramirez batting against Doug Fister
0.297 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jose Urena
0.291 — Eric Hosmer batting against Ubaldo Jimenez
0.289 — Jaycob Brugman batting against Matt Cain
0.286 — Jed Lowrie batting against Matt Cain
0.286 — Michael Brantley batting against Doug Fister
0.285 — Whit Merrifield batting against Ubaldo Jimenez
0.284 — Yonder Alonso batting against Matt Cain
0.284 — Brandon Phillips batting against Nick Pivetta
On a day with a light schedule, Matt Cain’s poor pitching brings a number of Oakland Athletics players to the top of the list. Let’s see if they survive the NN. Someone like rookie Jaycob Brugman doesn’t have the plate appearances to give him a great three-year hit average, and the NN won’t give him much credit for that.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.319, 0.771 — Jose Altuve batting against Alex Cobb.
0.297, 0.750 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jose Urena.
0.302, 0.737 — Jose Ramirez batting against Doug Fister.
0.265, 0.722 — Jean Segura batting against Cole Hamels.
0.291, 0.718 — Eric Hosmer batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.284, 0.717 — Brandon Phillips batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.286, 0.716 — Michael Brantley batting against Doug Fister.
0.285, 0.715 — Whit Merrifield batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.306, 0.714 — Ryon Healy batting against Matt Cain.
0.281, 0.712 — Ender Inciarte batting against Nick Pivetta.
Jose Altuve is the unanimous pick. Only Healy survives in the top ten against Matt Cain. I might be inclined to go with Jose Ramirez today, who is facing a poor pitcher in a better park for hitters. We’re also at the point in the season when we’re running out of time for picking one player a day. Doubling down is becoming more important.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2vXAiS2
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