Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.337 — Gerardo Parra batting against Trevor Williams
0.327 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Homer Bailey
0.326 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Homer Bailey
0.325 — Dee Gordon batting against Homer Bailey
0.320 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Trevor Williams
0.317 — Jose Altuve batting against Ubaldo Jimenez
0.312 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Trevor Williams
0.304 — Nolan Arenado batting against Trevor Williams
0.302 — Miguel Rojas batting against Homer Bailey
0.302 — Christian Yelich batting against Homer Bailey
One of these things is not like the others, as Jose Altuve is the only player on the list from a team other than the Rockies or Marlins. Williams allows hits at an above average pace, and this group of Rockies are good hitters. The last three seasons, due to injuries and recovery from injuries, Homer Bailey gets hit hard.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.337, 0.766 — Gerardo Parra batting against Trevor Williams.
0.317, 0.763 — Jose Altuve batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.320, 0.756 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Trevor Williams.
0.312, 0.749 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Trevor Williams.
0.295, 0.746 — Jean Segura batting against CC Sabathia.
0.325, 0.742 — Dee Gordon batting against Homer Bailey.
0.269, 0.741 — Daniel Murphy batting against Zachary Godley.
0.326, 0.741 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Homer Bailey.
0.327, 0.736 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Homer Bailey.
0.304, 0.732 — Nolan Arenado batting against Trevor Williams.
There’s more of a mix, but the NN also likes hitters against Williams and Bailey. Parra is the unanimous pick. Check the lineups with Murphy. I have seen Godley listed in a couple of places, but due to Taijuan Walker‘s paternity leave, the Arizona rotation is in flux.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2uhbYfc
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