Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.334 — Gerardo Parra batting against Ivan Nova
0.319 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ivan Nova
0.312 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ivan Nova
0.311 — Eddie Rosario batting against Matt Boyd
0.306 — Nolan Arenado batting against Ivan Nova
0.302 — Scooter Gennett batting against Thomas Koehler
0.302 — Justin Turner batting against Sean Newcomb
0.301 — Jean Segura batting against Luis Cessa
0.301 — Yunel Escobar batting against Rick Porcello
0.300 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Rick Porcello
Ivan Nova is a good pitcher, but he is also a pitcher who gives up most of his earned base runners as hits. So even though not many batters reach against him, his hit average against is above the MLB average for batters. The Rockies have the type of hitters who take advantage of that. Porcello is similar, but at a higher level. He’s allowing a .300 BA and a .333 OBP. I believe the difference is simply that the Rockies batters have better stats, thanks in part to the ballparks.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.334, 0.764 — Gerardo Parra batting against Ivan Nova.
0.319, 0.755 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ivan Nova.
0.297, 0.754 — Jose Altuve batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.312, 0.750 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ivan Nova.
0.272, 0.746 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robbie Ray.
0.301, 0.743 — Jean Segura batting against Luis Cessa.
0.306, 0.736 — Nolan Arenado batting against Ivan Nova.
0.302, 0.727 — Justin Turner batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.288, 0.727 — Jose Ramirez batting against J.A. Happ.
0.295, 0.724 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Parker Bridwell.
The two systems agree on Parra and Blackmon at the top of the list. The Angels don’t make the list against Porcello due to his better numbers long term.
In case you were wondering, Bryce Harper, who has the longest current hit streak at 15 games, has a .665 probability of getting a hit against Robbie Ray today. His three-year weighted hit average is just .244, due to the high number of walks he draws and his low hit total in 2016. Over his last 38 games, however, he is pretty much the definition of on fire.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2uUZUBy
No comments:
Post a Comment