Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.314 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Robert Stephenson
0.311 — T.J. Rivera batting against Luis Perdomo
0.311 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Robert Stephenson
0.310 — Dee Gordon batting against Robert Stephenson
0.307 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Luis Perdomo
0.306 — Daniel Murphy batting against Michael Blazek
0.306 — Wilmer Flores batting against Luis Perdomo
0.293 — David Peralta batting against Luke Weaver
0.293 — Jose Ramirez batting against J.C. Ramirez
0.292 — Christian Yelich batting against Robert Stephenson
It’s a good day to have the initials ‘T’, ‘J’, and ‘R’. JT Riddle is on the disabled list, unfortunately. Stephenson is still early in his MLB career, but owns an opposition slash line of .300/.390/.564. Perdomo walks fewer batters, so he also has a high probability of giving up a hit in a plate appearance (.303/.363/.468).
For extra fun, double down on Jose Ramirez against J.C. Ramirez.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.306, 0.757 — Daniel Murphy batting against Michael Blazek.
0.314, 0.734 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Robert Stephenson.
0.310, 0.732 — Dee Gordon batting against Robert Stephenson.
0.293, 0.730 — David Peralta batting against Luke Weaver.
0.293, 0.727 — Jose Ramirez batting against J.C. Ramirez.
0.289, 0.727 — A.J. Pollock batting against Luke Weaver.
0.311, 0.725 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Robert Stephenson.
0.311, 0.724 — T.J. Rivera batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.307, 0.719 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.306, 0.715 — Wilmer Flores batting against Luis Perdomo.
Murphy comes out head and shoulders above everyone else. Be careful picking someone from the Nationals today, as they are playing an early afternoon start after a night game, and Dusty Baker likes to give players days off. Bryce Harper might sit after his umpire outburst, and veterans Murphy or Ryan Zimmerman could see a day off. J.T. Realmuto is the consensus pick.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2h4Yv5u
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