Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.360 — Starlin Castro batting against Bartolo Colon
0.344 — Didi Gregorius batting against Bartolo Colon
0.330 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Bartolo Colon
0.326 — Eric Hosmer batting against Matt Boyd
0.326 — Aaron Judge batting against Bartolo Colon
0.325 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jesse Chavez
0.322 — Gary Sanchez batting against Bartolo Colon
0.320 — Jose Ramirez batting against Ty Blach
0.318 — Justin Turner batting against Miguel A Gonzalez
0.316 — Clint Frazier batting against Bartolo Colon

There may have been a reason the Braves parted ways with Bartolo Colon. Colon used to allow a middle of the road BA with a very low OBP. Now, both are very high.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.325, 0.768 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jesse Chavez.
0.360, 0.756 — Starlin Castro batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.306, 0.752 — Jose Altuve batting against Sam J Gaviglio.
0.320, 0.743 — Jose Ramirez batting against Ty Blach.
0.344, 0.740 — Didi Gregorius batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.318, 0.737 — Justin Turner batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.326, 0.734 — Eric Hosmer batting against Matt Boyd.
0.280, 0.733 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Dinelson Lamet.
0.282, 0.733 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Dinelson Lamet.
0.285, 0.729 — Gerardo Parra batting against Dinelson Lamet.

In the NN world, Daniel Murphy comes out on top again, but Colon does manage to drag Starlin Castro and Didi Gregorious into the mix of the usual suspects. The Rockies hitting trio is helped by Coors, of course. Castro is the consensus pick.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Franchy Cordero	27
Eric Fryer	24
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
John Jaso	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
Andres Blanco	19
Rougned Odor	19
Mark Zagunis	18
Jorge Soler	18
Miguel Montero	18
Taylor Featherston	17
Tony John Wolters	17
Paul Janish	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Ramon Torres	15
Robinson Cano	15
Zack Cozart	15
Greg Bird	15
Cristhian Adames	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
George Springer	14
Curtis Granderson	14
Lewis Brinson	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Xander Bogaerts	13
Chris Davis	13
Jarrod Dyson	13
Brad Miller	13
Bradley Zimmer	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Reymond Fuentes	13
Cameron Maybin	13
Hanley Ramirez	13
Cliff Pennington	12
Rob Refsnyder	12
Martin Prado	12
Daniel Nava	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Chris Young	12
Nicholas Franklin	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Leonys Martin	12
Devin Mesoraco	11
Brett Gardner	11
Jae-Gyun Hwang	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Darwin Barney	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Starling Marte	11
Kevan Smith	11
Sandy Leon	10
Tom Murphy	10
Brandon Guyer	10
Carlos Sanchez	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Brandon Moss	10
Carlos Correa	10
Brock Stassi	10
Mallex Smith	10
Justin Upton	10
Tyler Flowers	10
Yandy Diaz	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Edwin Encarnacion	10
Carlos Gonzalez	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Tyler Collins	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10

Good luck!

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