Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.353 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Tillman
0.326 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Luis Perdomo
0.324 — Gerardo Parra batting against Chad Kuhl
0.323 — Buster Posey batting against Luis Perdomo
0.320 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Chris Tillman
0.318 — Jean Segura batting against Masahiro Tanaka
0.309 — Denard Span batting against Luis Perdomo
0.308 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chad Kuhl
0.308 — Daniel Murphy batting against Anthony Banda
0.307 — Marwin Gonzalez batting against Chris Tillman
0.307 — Josh Reddick batting against Chris Tillman

Daniel Murphy is so good, he makes the top ten against a pitcher who has yet to make his major league debut! Banda is rated as league average in hit average by the system, since there is no MLB data available. Throughout his minor league career, batters hit Banda decently despite his high strikeout rate. His AAA numbers were probably hurt by playing in the Pacific Coast League.

Otherwise, the Log5 method likes the Astros against Chris Tillman.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.353, 0.777 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Tillman.
0.308, 0.761 — Daniel Murphy batting against Anthony Banda.
0.324, 0.758 — Gerardo Parra batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.318, 0.753 — Jean Segura batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.308, 0.749 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.326, 0.745 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.302, 0.744 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.323, 0.739 — Buster Posey batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.305, 0.739 — David Peralta batting against Tanner Roark.
0.303, 0.736 — Jose Ramirez batting against Marcus Stroman.

Murphy does even better with the NN, but Jose Altuve takes the top spot in both systems. Parra would be the consensus second choice.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
John Jaso	26
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Aaron Hill	23
Curtis Granderson	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
Mark Zagunis	18
Jorge Soler	18
Nomar Mazara	17
Taylor Featherston	17
Scott Schebler	17
Keon Broxton	16
Paul Janish	15
Greg Bird	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Jacoby Ellsbury	15
Lewis Brinson	14
Nicholas Franklin	14
Jonathan Lucroy	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Kevan Smith	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Joc Pederson	14
Sean Rodriguez	14
Dansby Swanson	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Daniel Descalso	13
Martin Prado	12
Leonys Martin	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Bruce Maxwell III	12
Jarrod Dyson	12
Rob Refsnyder	12
Timothy Beckham	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Brock Stassi	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Joe Panik	11
Travis Shaw	11
Jae-Gyun Hwang	11
Alex Avila	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Chris Owings	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Max Kepler	10
Buster Posey	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Tyler Collins	10
Carlos Correa	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Tom Murphy	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Mark Reynolds	10
Luis Sardinas	10
JaCoby Jones	10

Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2tyRCzi