Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.365 — Jose Altuve batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.340 — Jean Segura batting against Rafael Montero
0.327 — Daniel Murphy batting against German Marquez
0.326 — Justin Turner batting against Matt Moore
0.324 — Ben Gamel batting against Rafael Montero
0.322 — Didi Gregorius batting against Austin Pruitt
0.316 — Gerardo Parra batting against Tanner Roark
0.314 — Marwin Gonzalez batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.314 — Chris Taylor batting against Matt Moore
0.313 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Jordan Zimmermann
Altuve tries to become the third batter this season to achieve a 19-game hit streak. He may be the hottest players in the majors right now, although Gergorius is making a run as well, and Harper is no slouch. Altuve is just 1 for 9 against Jordan Zimmermann, however.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.365, 0.792 — Jose Altuve batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.327, 0.768 — Daniel Murphy batting against German Marquez.
0.340, 0.760 — Jean Segura batting against Rafael Montero.
0.316, 0.749 — Gerardo Parra batting against Tanner Roark.
0.300, 0.738 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Tanner Roark.
0.326, 0.738 — Justin Turner batting against Matt Moore.
0.303, 0.735 — David Peralta batting against Michael Wacha.
0.301, 0.734 — A.J. Pollock batting against Michael Wacha.
0.324, 0.733 — Ben Gamel batting against Rafael Montero.
0.322, 0.732 — Didi Gregorius batting against Austin Pruitt.
It’s a very similar list. The NN likes Rockies hitters against Tammer Roark more than the Log5 method does, and brings in some Diamondbacks as well. Altuve is easily the consensus pick, as the league is hitting .308/.363/.531 against Zimmermann.
If Altuve gets a hit tonight, the NN will record its longest streak of the season, 10 games. It reached nine games three times now. His .792 probability of getting a hit is the highest the NN produced this season.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2u4dspv
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