Games of the Day

There are five pitchers starting today with 2017 ERAs over 6.00. None of them has pitched more than 50 innings, but the fact that pitchers are getting 50 innings to see if they can get their acts together is telling. Maybe the high offense this season comes from the relatively low offense of the last few years encouraging MLB teams to develop batters at the expense of pitchers, like the 1990s and early 2000s caused teams to invest in better pitching and defense. These things are cyclic.

Among the potential slugfests, J.A. Happ takes on Corey Kluber as the Blue Jays face the Indians. Happ pitched into a bit of good luck this July. His 3.00 ERA seems out of line with his .262/.338/.574 slash line, and six home runs allowed in 15 innings. Only five of his nine runs allowed were earned, and batters are just 3 for 22 against him with men on base. Most of the damage came with the bases empty. Kluber is 5-1 with a 2.54 ERA at home, where he strikeouts many more batters and allows many fewer home runs.

Ivan Nova battles Denver’s own Kyle Freeland as the Pirates and Rockies tussle. Nova is having a super control year, with just 16 walks in 126 2/3 innings. Freeland may be the best acclimated pitcher to Coors ever, with a 3.23 ERA at home versus 4.12 on the road.

Finally, The Nationals and Diamondbacks play the rubber game of their series with Stephen Strasburg facing Robbie Ray. After a rough June in which Strasburg allowed 7 home runs in 35 1/3 innings, he owns a 2.12 ERA in three July starts, allowing one home run in 17 innings. Ray’s great season is a function of allowing many fewer hits, despite not increasing his strikeout rate much. In fact, given his higher walk rate this season, I might expect his ERA to be up. His BABIP, however, is down from a very high .352 in 2016 to a very low .269 in 2017. His ground balls are down and his fly balls are up. Note that in 2016, the Diamondbacks had a .320 BABIP against them, the highest in the majors. This year it is down to .294, in the middle of the pack. Ray’s improvement might have a lot to do with better defense.

Enjoy!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2tB8jdk