Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.337 — Didi Gregorius batting against Homer Bailey
0.323 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jimmy Nelson
0.322 — Ender Inciarte batting against Patrick Corbin
0.318 — Brandon Phillips batting against Patrick Corbin
0.316 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Homer Bailey
0.316 — Freddie Freeman batting against Patrick Corbin
0.316 — Jose Altuve batting against Aaron Nola
0.314 — Johan Camargo batting against Patrick Corbin
0.313 — Jose Ramirez batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.313 — Matt Kemp batting against Patrick Corbin
Gregorius always was a bit of hacker, and this season he is a very successful one. He currently owns a .307 BA with a .338 OBP, so most of his on-base appearances come from hits. He’s hitting for power, so he can launch the ball over fielders. He doesn’t strike out very much. This makes him a great player to advance a streak.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.316, 0.768 — Jose Altuve batting against Aaron Nola.
0.323, 0.766 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jimmy Nelson.
0.337, 0.743 — Didi Gregorius batting against Homer Bailey.
0.322, 0.740 — Ender Inciarte batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.312, 0.740 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Trevor Williams.
0.313, 0.739 — Jose Ramirez batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.318, 0.737 — Brandon Phillips batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.291, 0.731 — A.J. Pollock batting against Aaron Blair.
0.291, 0.730 — David Peralta batting against Aaron Blair.
0.304, 0.728 — Buster Posey batting against Trevor Williams.
0.316, 0.728 — Freddie Freeman batting against Patrick Corbin.
Altuve and Harper both kept their streaks alive Tuesday night with a single hit, and Daniel Murphy kept the NN streak alive with a double in the bottom of the ninth. This is a tough call. Altuve is the NN pick, but Murphy and Gregorius are tied for consensus pick. Altuve has a long hitting streak, and Aaron Nola is tough on right-handed batters. Nelson is tough on lefties, as far as right-handed pitchers go, especially this season. Bailey is just getting creamed, and if you follow the hit streak link above, Gregorius is working on a seven game streak during which he is 14 for 25 with four home runs.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2tYDnPG
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