Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.341 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jonathan Gray
0.337 — Ryon Healy batting against Bartolo Colon
0.331 — Josh Harrison batting against Clayton Richard
0.329 — Starling Marte batting against Clayton Richard
0.328 — Gerardo Parra batting against Edwin Jackson
0.325 — Adam Frazier batting against Clayton Richard
0.324 — Melky Cabrera batting against Josh Tomlin
0.321 — Avisail Garcia batting against Josh Tomlin
0.321 — Gregory Polanco batting against Clayton Richard
0.320 — Andrew McCutchen batting against Clayton Richard
Log5 indicates the Pirates should do well against Clayton Richard. He comes into the game with a .329 BA allowed, and doesn’t get helped by PETCO Park. Be very careful picking Murphy today, as the Nationals play a split double header, and Dusty Baker tends to rest his veterans. Gray pitched worse on the road this season, so if Murphy does start that game he would be a good choice.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.341, 0.772 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.312, 0.759 — Daniel Murphy batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.328, 0.758 — Gerardo Parra batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.296, 0.757 — Jose Altuve batting against Justin Verlander.
0.308, 0.747 — Gerardo Parra batting against Erick Fedde.
0.308, 0.743 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.311, 0.742 — Jean Segura batting against Seth Lugo.
0.302, 0.738 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.329, 0.736 — Starling Marte batting against Clayton Richard.
0.324, 0.734 — Melky Cabrera batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.297, 0.734 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jason Hammel.
See the above comment on why you should probably not double down on Daniel Murphy, and the same goes for Gerardo Parra. I might very well go with Altuve and Segura today.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2tOvIUy
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