The top five remain the same at the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Jose Ramirez, Mike Trout, Francisco Lindor, Mookie Betts, and J.D. Martinez top the majors. Since Betts went on the disabled list yesterday, he should start falling soon, since there is a penalty for not playing.
The battle for the NL East continues with Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals facing Mike Foltynewicz and the Braves. Strasburg owns a 1.97 ERA on the road this season, where he allowed just three of his 10 home runs. Foltynewicz stands at 4-3 on the season despite a 2.55 ERA. That’s actually worse than it looks, since he is 3-2 on the road with a 1.87 ERA! He’s holding opponents to a .189 BA with runners in scoring position.
First place teams send great pitcher to the mound as Chris Sale and the Red Sox face Gerrit Cole and the Astros. Sale continues his amazing season with 104 K in 75 innings with just 20 walks. For the second year in a row, his WHIP is below 1.0. Cole is even better, with 109 K in 74 2/3 innings with just 19 walks. Don’t expect a lot of batters reaching base in this game.
The Dodgers visit the Rockies to try to tighten up the race in the NL West. The unknown starter takes on Tyler Anderson. Anderson posted a 1.88 ERA in April, but a 5.28 mark in May. The Rockies are hoping that June is closer to that earlier streak. Matt Kemp should move into third place on the All-Time visiting At Bat leaders at Coors. Given his success there, he should stay in the NL West for a long time.
Enjoy!
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.325 — Wilson Ramos batting against Mike Leake.
0.319 — Matt Kemp batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.318 — Matt M Duffy batting against Mike Leake.
0.316 — Albert Almora batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.311 — Jean Segura batting against Sergio Romo.
0.308 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.301 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.300 — Scooter Gennett batting against Andrew Lockett.
0.295 — Joey Wendle batting against Mike Leake.
0.294 — Javier Baez batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.294 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.289 — Odubel Herrera batting against Chris Stratton.
0.288 — Jed Lowrie batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.287 — Manny Machado batting against Sonny Gray.
0.287 — Tommy La Stella batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.285 — Mallex Smith batting against Mike Leake.
0.284 — Miguel Andujar batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.282 — C.J. Cron batting against Mike Leake.
0.282 — Jose Martinez batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.281 — Dee Gordon batting against Sergio Romo.
0.281 — Corey Dickerson batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.281 — Eddie Rosario batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.280 — Adam Jones batting against Sonny Gray.
0.280 — Eric Hosmer batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.279 — Starling Marte batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.279 — Jose Pirela batting against Tyler Mahle.
Ramos continues to have an outstanding year for the Rays at the plate. He does not hit Leake for average, but he does hit him for power.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.311, 0.747 — Jean Segura batting against Sergio Romo.
0.319, 0.741 — Matt Kemp batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.325, 0.738 — Wilson Ramos batting against Mike Leake.
0.300, 0.732 — Scooter Gennett batting against Andrew Lockett.
0.316, 0.732 — Albert Almora batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.260, 0.730 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Sale.
0.308, 0.730 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.301, 0.727 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.318, 0.726 — Matt M Duffy batting against Mike Leake.
0.271, 0.721 — Michael Brantley batting against Jose Berrios.
0.294, 0.714 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.281, 0.712 — Eddie Rosario batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.281, 0.710 — Dee Gordon batting against Sergio Romo.
0.289, 0.709 — Odubel Herrera batting against Chris Stratton.
0.279, 0.706 — Starling Marte batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.278, 0.704 — Buster Posey batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.271, 0.703 — Nolan Arenado batting against Dennis Santana.
0.287, 0.702 — Manny Machado batting against Sonny Gray.
0.281, 0.702 — Corey Dickerson batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.282, 0.700 — Jose Martinez batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.261, 0.698 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Dennis Santana.
0.280, 0.698 — Adam Jones batting against Sonny Gray.
0.294, 0.697 — Javier Baez batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.265, 0.696 — Jose Abreu batting against Chase Anderson.
0.246, 0.696 — Mookie Betts batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.265, 0.695 — Jon Jay batting against Frankie Montas.
Note that the Dodgers have not named a starter for tonight, but one source has him as Dennis Santana. Note also that I went out to 26 on this list since Mookie Betts has not started in a few days, but has not gone on the disabled list.
Jean Segura pops to the top of this chart. He leads the majors with 26 multi-hit games. Kemp and Ramos are tied for the consensus first choice. Despite facing Chris Sale, Jose Altuve still ranks very high on the list.
Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!
Mike Trout led May in OBP with an impressive .480 mark, 34 points higher than the next nearest player, Brandon Crawford. Crawford and Trout got to their high OBPs in different ways. Trout was a 30 hit, 30 walk player, while Crawford collected 42 hits and seven walks. Trout also played more games and came to the plate more, which makes his feat a little more real. Trout also posted a .698 slugging percentage, and stole seven bases in seven tries, so he excelled at every aspect of offense in the month.
Kudos to Crawford, who hit .412 for the month of May. Scooter Gennett fell a hit short at .398. Both posted outstanding months.
Mookie Betts led the majors in slugging percentage at .766, nine points ahead of Jose Ramirez. Betts played just 24 games, however, so Ramirez has better counting numbers. Ramirez is second in home runs to J.D. Martinez, third in doubles, tied for second in runs, and fourth in RBI. His OPS is about the same as Trout, but Ramirez did more damage, so Jose Ramirez is the Baseball Musings Offensive Player of the Month for May 2018.
There are also a plethora of pitchers who pitched well enough to deserve the May honor. Justin Verlander stands out immediately for his 0.86 ERA with impressive three-true outcome numbers. Jake Arrieta, however, is right behind Verlander at 0.90, but in 11 2/3 fewer innings. James Paxton led the majors in innings pitched and posted a 1.67 ERA and pitched two complete games. Daniel Mengden posted a 1.51 ERA in the same innings as Verlander, but struck out just 5.18 batters per nine innings. That is really impressive, since that K rate is among the lowest in the majors. Sean Newcomb went 5-0 with a 1.54 ERA and did not allow a home run.
When all factors are taken into account, Verlander comes out on top. He owns the best ERA with a high number of innings, and he was superior in all aspects of the game. Justin Verlander is the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month for May 2018.
Jose Ramirez retakes the lead in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after a 2 for 5 night and his 18th home run in the Indians 9-8 win over Minnesota. He passes Mike Trout, who moves down to second. Francisco Lindor, Mookie Betts, and J.D. Martinez round out the top five, but Jose Altuve is only 0.1 points behind Martinez.
