Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.325 — Wilson Ramos batting against Mike Leake.
0.319 — Matt Kemp batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.318 — Matt M Duffy batting against Mike Leake.
0.316 — Albert Almora batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.311 — Jean Segura batting against Sergio Romo.
0.308 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.301 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.300 — Scooter Gennett batting against Andrew Lockett.
0.295 — Joey Wendle batting against Mike Leake.
0.294 — Javier Baez batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.294 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.289 — Odubel Herrera batting against Chris Stratton.
0.288 — Jed Lowrie batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.287 — Manny Machado batting against Sonny Gray.
0.287 — Tommy La Stella batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.285 — Mallex Smith batting against Mike Leake.
0.284 — Miguel Andujar batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.282 — C.J. Cron batting against Mike Leake.
0.282 — Jose Martinez batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.281 — Dee Gordon batting against Sergio Romo.
0.281 — Corey Dickerson batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.281 — Eddie Rosario batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.280 — Adam Jones batting against Sonny Gray.
0.280 — Eric Hosmer batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.279 — Starling Marte batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.279 — Jose Pirela batting against Tyler Mahle.

Ramos continues to have an outstanding year for the Rays at the plate. He does not hit Leake for average, but he does hit him for power.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.311, 0.747 — Jean Segura batting against Sergio Romo.
0.319, 0.741 — Matt Kemp batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.325, 0.738 — Wilson Ramos batting against Mike Leake.
0.300, 0.732 — Scooter Gennett batting against Andrew Lockett.
0.316, 0.732 — Albert Almora batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.260, 0.730 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Sale.
0.308, 0.730 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.301, 0.727 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.318, 0.726 — Matt M Duffy batting against Mike Leake.
0.271, 0.721 — Michael Brantley batting against Jose Berrios.
0.294, 0.714 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.281, 0.712 — Eddie Rosario batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.281, 0.710 — Dee Gordon batting against Sergio Romo.
0.289, 0.709 — Odubel Herrera batting against Chris Stratton.
0.279, 0.706 — Starling Marte batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.278, 0.704 — Buster Posey batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.271, 0.703 — Nolan Arenado batting against Dennis Santana.
0.287, 0.702 — Manny Machado batting against Sonny Gray.
0.281, 0.702 — Corey Dickerson batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.282, 0.700 — Jose Martinez batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.261, 0.698 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Dennis Santana.
0.280, 0.698 — Adam Jones batting against Sonny Gray.
0.294, 0.697 — Javier Baez batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.265, 0.696 — Jose Abreu batting against Chase Anderson.
0.246, 0.696 — Mookie Betts batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.265, 0.695 — Jon Jay batting against Frankie Montas.

Note that the Dodgers have not named a starter for tonight, but one source has him as Dennis Santana. Note also that I went out to 26 on this list since Mookie Betts has not started in a few days, but has not gone on the disabled list.

Jean Segura pops to the top of this chart. He leads the majors with 26 multi-hit games. Kemp and Ramos are tied for the consensus first choice. Despite facing Chris Sale, Jose Altuve still ranks very high on the list.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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