Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.378 — Jean Segura batting against Alex Cobb.
0.344 — Dee Gordon batting against Alex Cobb.
0.322 — Jose Altuve batting against Marco Estrada.
0.321 — Jon Jay batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.318 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Alex Cobb.
0.314 — Ryon Healy batting against Alex Cobb.
0.313 — David Peralta batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.309 — Nelson Cruz batting against Alex Cobb.
0.304 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Ivan Nova.
0.302 — Mitch Haniger batting against Alex Cobb.
0.301 — Albert Almora batting against Alex Wood.
0.300 — Corey Dickerson batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.298 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Marco Estrada.
0.295 — Adrian Beltre batting against Clayton Richard.
0.293 — Denard Span batting against Alex Cobb.
0.288 — Jose Martinez batting against Shane Bieber.
0.288 — Adam Jones batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.288 — Jed Lowrie batting against Michael Fiers.
0.287 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Shane Bieber.
0.286 — Nick Markakis batting against Luis Castillo.
0.283 — Freddie Freeman batting against Luis Castillo.
0.283 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.282 — Eddie Rosario batting against James Shields.
0.280 — Wilmer Flores batting against Ivan Nova.
0.280 — Brandon Crawford batting against Kyle Freeland.

It seems that on a number of days, Segura and Gordon are a good double down combination. They bat at the top of the order so they get the most plate appearances, and both put the bat on the ball.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.378, 0.779 — Jean Segura batting against Alex Cobb.
0.322, 0.758 — Jose Altuve batting against Marco Estrada.
0.344, 0.744 — Dee Gordon batting against Alex Cobb.
0.301, 0.728 — Albert Almora batting against Alex Wood.
0.321, 0.722 — Jon Jay batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.298, 0.722 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Marco Estrada.
0.295, 0.720 — Adrian Beltre batting against Clayton Richard.
0.282, 0.716 — Eddie Rosario batting against James Shields.
0.278, 0.715 — J.D. Martinez batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.270, 0.715 — Scooter Gennett batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.313, 0.713 — David Peralta batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.300, 0.711 — Corey Dickerson batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.278, 0.710 — Gerardo Parra batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.318, 0.708 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Alex Cobb.
0.288, 0.707 — Jose Martinez batting against Shane Bieber.
0.288, 0.706 — Adam Jones batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.314, 0.706 — Ryon Healy batting against Alex Cobb.
0.279, 0.705 — Nick Castellanos batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.287, 0.705 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Shane Bieber.
0.304, 0.704 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Ivan Nova.
0.261, 0.702 — Michael Brantley batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.283, 0.701 — Freddie Freeman batting against Luis Castillo.
0.286, 0.698 — Nick Markakis batting against Luis Castillo.
0.269, 0.697 — Mookie Betts batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.269, 0.697 — Nolan Arenado batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.270, 0.697 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Rick Porcello.

I’m surprised to see anyone against Madison Bumgarner on the list. Parra is 2 for 19 career against Bumgarner with seven strikeouts.

Once again Segura is the unanimous first choice. Gordon and Altuve are tied for consensus second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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