Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.341 — Jean Segura batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.327 — Nick Markakis batting against Matt Harvey.
0.322 — Freddie Freeman batting against Matt Harvey.
0.312 — Dee Gordon batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.308 — Jose Altuve batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.302 — J.D. Martinez batting against John Lamb.
0.300 — Ozzie Albies batting against Matt Harvey.
0.299 — Jon Jay batting against Elieser Hernandez.
0.299 — Kurt Suzuki batting against Matt Harvey.
0.298 — Albert Almora batting against Ross Stripling.
0.297 — Gerardo Parra batting against Derek Holland.
0.294 — Mookie Betts batting against John Lamb.
0.293 — Brandon Crawford batting against Chad Bettis.
0.292 — Ender Inciarte batting against Matt Harvey.
0.291 — Buster Posey batting against Chad Bettis.
0.291 — Scooter Gennett batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.290 — Nolan Arenado batting against Derek Holland.
0.288 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.287 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.286 — Corey Dickerson batting against Steven Matz.
0.286 — Ryon Healy batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.286 — Nick Castellanos batting against Frankie Montas.
0.285 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.284 — David Peralta batting against Elieser Hernandez.
0.284 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Zachary Godley.
0.284 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Derek Holland.

Another day against the Orioles, another day at the top of the Log5 list for Jean Segura. Yesterday was his first day back from an arm infection. He did not get a hit but drew two walks.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.341, 0.761 — Jean Segura batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.308, 0.753 — Jose Altuve batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.291, 0.731 — Scooter Gennett batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.327, 0.730 — Nick Markakis batting against Matt Harvey.
0.302, 0.730 — J.D. Martinez batting against John Lamb.
0.322, 0.730 — Freddie Freeman batting against Matt Harvey.
0.312, 0.728 — Dee Gordon batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.298, 0.727 — Albert Almora batting against Ross Stripling.
0.297, 0.724 — Gerardo Parra batting against Derek Holland.
0.288, 0.721 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.294, 0.714 — Mookie Betts batting against John Lamb.
0.290, 0.714 — Nolan Arenado batting against Derek Holland.
0.284, 0.713 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Derek Holland.
0.273, 0.712 — Eddie Rosario batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.299, 0.709 — Jon Jay batting against Elieser Hernandez.
0.282, 0.709 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Derek Holland.
0.286, 0.707 — Nick Castellanos batting against Frankie Montas.
0.291, 0.707 — Buster Posey batting against Chad Bettis.
0.284, 0.705 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Zachary Godley.
0.286, 0.704 — Corey Dickerson batting against Steven Matz.
0.262, 0.702 — Michael Brantley batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.300, 0.701 — Ozzie Albies batting against Matt Harvey.
0.293, 0.699 — Brandon Crawford batting against Chad Bettis.
0.292, 0.699 — Ender Inciarte batting against Matt Harvey.
0.299, 0.699 — Kurt Suzuki batting against Matt Harvey.

Segura stands as the unanimous first choice, with Nick Markakis the consensus second choice. Poor Ryan Borucki has to make his MLB debut against the Astros in Houston.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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