Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.338 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.324 — Matt Kemp batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.315 — Freddie Freeman batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.315 — Matt M Duffy batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.313 — Odubel Herrera batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.312 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.309 — Nick Markakis batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.300 — Eddie Rosario batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.299 — Whit Merrifield batting against Sal Romano.
0.295 — Jean Segura batting against Jaime Barria.
0.293 — Joey Votto batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.292 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.290 — Mookie Betts batting against David Hess.
0.288 — Mike Trout batting against Mike Leake.
0.286 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Chris Stratton.
0.286 — Michael Moustakas batting against Sal Romano.
0.285 — Jorge Alfaro batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.285 — Jose Peraza batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.285 — Brandon Crawford batting against Trevor Richards.
0.285 — Albert Almora batting against Chase Anderson.
0.284 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.283 — Brian Anderson batting against Chris Stratton.
0.283 — Michael Brantley batting against James Shields.
0.282 — Starlin Castro batting against Chris Stratton.
0.282 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jake Odorizzi.

Gennett’s ranking benefits from Kennedy allowing 83 hits and just 25 walks in 65 2/3 innings this season.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.312, 0.759 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.338, 0.750 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.295, 0.743 — Jean Segura batting against Jaime Barria.
0.324, 0.743 — Matt Kemp batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.315, 0.732 — Matt M Duffy batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.315, 0.730 — Freddie Freeman batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.300, 0.726 — Eddie Rosario batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.285, 0.721 — Albert Almora batting against Chase Anderson.
0.283, 0.716 — Michael Brantley batting against James Shields.
0.309, 0.716 — Nick Markakis batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.290, 0.713 — Mookie Betts batting against David Hess.
0.313, 0.713 — Odubel Herrera batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.279, 0.710 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.282, 0.709 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.280, 0.708 — J.D. Martinez batting against David Hess.
0.299, 0.707 — Whit Merrifield batting against Sal Romano.
0.292, 0.705 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.277, 0.705 — Corey Dickerson batting against Clay Buchholz.
0.286, 0.703 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Chris Stratton.
0.261, 0.703 — Jose Martinez batting against Matt Strahm.
0.282, 0.700 — Starlin Castro batting against Chris Stratton.
0.285, 0.700 — Brandon Crawford batting against Trevor Richards.
0.293, 0.695 — Joey Votto batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.252, 0.695 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Aaron Nola.
0.273, 0.695 — Buster Posey batting against Trevor Richards.

Altuve is 9 for 17 career against Mengden with three doubles, a home run, and two strikeouts. Mengden does not walk a lot of people, and Altuve puts the ball in play. Gennett is the consensus first pick, however.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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