Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.323 — Mookie Betts batting against Mike Leake.
0.320 — Adrian Beltre batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.318 — Corey Dickerson batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.317 — J.D. Martinez batting against Mike Leake.
0.310 — Scooter Gennett batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.308 — Jon Jay batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.304 — Matt Kemp batting against Chris Stratton.
0.302 — Eddie Rosario batting against Shane Bieber.
0.301 — Jean Segura batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.300 — Miguel Andujar batting against Wilmer Font.
0.299 — Starling Marte batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.298 — Jose Altuve batting against Brad Keller.
0.298 — Josh Harrison batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.296 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Wilmer Font.
0.295 — David Peralta batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.294 — Gerardo Parra batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.294 — Albert Almora batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.291 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.289 — Austin Meadows batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.289 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Mike Leake.
0.289 — Nolan Arenado batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.289 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Mike Leake.
0.288 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.284 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Mike Leake.
0.282 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Daniel Mengden.

Leake is a high hit, low walk pitcher who also gives up a lot of power. He seems like a good pitcher for Betts to hit.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.298, 0.750 — Jose Altuve batting against Brad Keller.
0.301, 0.745 — Jean Segura batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.310, 0.739 — Scooter Gennett batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.323, 0.733 — Mookie Betts batting against Mike Leake.
0.320, 0.732 — Adrian Beltre batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.317, 0.731 — J.D. Martinez batting against Mike Leake.
0.302, 0.728 — Eddie Rosario batting against Shane Bieber.
0.318, 0.728 — Corey Dickerson batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.294, 0.726 — Albert Almora batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.304, 0.726 — Matt Kemp batting against Chris Stratton.
0.308, 0.718 — Jon Jay batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.291, 0.715 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.294, 0.714 — Gerardo Parra batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.288, 0.713 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.277, 0.711 — Michael Brantley batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.274, 0.711 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Brad Keller.
0.299, 0.711 — Starling Marte batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.273, 0.709 — Jose Martinez batting against Jose Quintana.
0.296, 0.708 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Wilmer Font.
0.289, 0.707 — Nolan Arenado batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.274, 0.705 — Matt M Duffy batting against CC Sabathia.
0.298, 0.704 — Josh Harrison batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.289, 0.704 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Mike Leake.
0.282, 0.703 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.295, 0.702 — David Peralta batting against Zack Wheeler.

It’s tough to keep Altuve out of the top slot. Betts is the consensus first choice, and Beltre is the consensus second choice. There appear to be a number of good choices today. Keller is a true rookie, so his parameters are still being regressed to the mean. So far, he allows few hits without striking out a lot of batters. He also walks a decent number. It could be the league has not adjusted to him yet. He has a low line drive percentage and a high ground ball percentage. His xFIP is 4.22, while his ERA is 2.31. He’s either due for a huge regression to the mean, or the small sample size of his career says we don’t know much about him.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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