A loyal Baseball Musings reader inquired about a stat that might help with the Beat the Streak picks:
But I have an idea for another stat that may be helpful to people (one of the most-frustrated groups imaginable) trying to scale the Beat the Streak mountain.
It’s this—a percentage associated with each hitter having an active hitting streak of at least five games, a percentage indicating the “successful game percentage” rate in that season for that hitter, with “successful game percentage” being defined as the games in which the hitter has logged an official at-bat and been credited with a base hit divided by the number of games in which the hitter has logged an official at-bat.
That percentage obviously varies from hitter to hitter. Are there top hitters who are close to 80%? Are there productive-but-streaky hitters who are closer to 70%?
When you’re looking for an edge, you’ll take anything you can get.
You’ve implied that the percentage is about 75% for even the game’s most-productive hitters. In other words, they fail to get a hit in about 25% of the games in which they appear and log an official at-bat.
I bet people would be curious to see what the “successful game percentage” (as distinct from the batting average or on-base percentage and other statistical measures) really is.
Okay. I took all starts from 2016-2018, and eliminated games in which there would be a push. Those would be games in which all the plate appearances ended in walks or hit by pitches. I then calculated the percentage of games with at least one hit for all players with at least 200 qualifying games.
Overall the probability is .622, including pitchers batting.
| Batter | Games | Games With Hits | Probability |
| Charlie Blackmon | 365 | 289 | 0.792 |
| Jose Altuve | 389 | 304 | 0.781 |
| Daniel Murphy | 280 | 218 | 0.779 |
| Dee Gordon | 286 | 217 | 0.759 |
| Scooter Gennett | 297 | 225 | 0.758 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 257 | 194 | 0.755 |
| Ender Inciarte | 354 | 267 | 0.754 |
| Trea Turner | 240 | 181 | 0.754 |
| Corey Seager | 308 | 232 | 0.753 |
| Jose Peraza | 246 | 185 | 0.752 |
| Brandon Phillips | 278 | 209 | 0.752 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 349 | 262 | 0.751 |
| Jon Jay | 242 | 181 | 0.748 |
| Jean Segura | 344 | 257 | 0.747 |
| Mookie Betts | 367 | 274 | 0.747 |
| Alex Bregman | 272 | 203 | 0.746 |
| Yulieski Gurriel | 229 | 170 | 0.742 |
| Jose Ramirez | 370 | 274 | 0.741 |
| Whit Merrifield | 289 | 214 | 0.740 |
| Joey Votto | 389 | 288 | 0.740 |
| Odubel Herrera | 345 | 255 | 0.739 |
| Freddie Freeman | 350 | 257 | 0.734 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 308 | 225 | 0.731 |
| Adrian Beltre | 292 | 213 | 0.729 |
| Willson Contreras | 218 | 159 | 0.729 |
| Cesar Hernandez | 343 | 250 | 0.729 |
| Adam Jones | 370 | 268 | 0.724 |
| Robinson Cano | 348 | 252 | 0.724 |
| Wilson Ramos | 239 | 173 | 0.724 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 360 | 260 | 0.722 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 316 | 228 | 0.722 |
| Eric Hosmer | 395 | 285 | 0.722 |
| Martin Prado | 204 | 147 | 0.721 |
| J.D. Martinez | 311 | 224 | 0.720 |
| Lorenzo Cain | 325 | 234 | 0.720 |
| Joe Mauer | 300 | 216 | 0.720 |
| Yadier Molina | 323 | 232 | 0.718 |
| Michael Moustakas | 244 | 175 | 0.717 |
| Starling Marte | 258 | 185 | 0.717 |
| Manny Machado | 388 | 278 | 0.716 |
| Buster Posey | 331 | 237 | 0.716 |
| Eddie Rosario | 293 | 209 | 0.713 |
| Nolan Arenado | 387 | 276 | 0.713 |
| Andrelton Simmons | 345 | 246 | 0.713 |
| Kris Bryant | 369 | 263 | 0.713 |
| Ryan Braun | 275 | 196 | 0.713 |
| Nick Markakis | 386 | 275 | 0.712 |
| Brian Dozier | 375 | 266 | 0.709 |
| Hernan Perez | 226 | 160 | 0.708 |
| Tim Anderson | 315 | 223 | 0.708 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 236 | 167 | 0.708 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 248 | 175 | 0.706 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 319 | 225 | 0.705 |
| Matt Kemp | 322 | 227 | 0.705 |
| Josh Reddick | 271 | 191 | 0.705 |
| Justin Turner | 290 | 204 | 0.703 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 384 | 270 | 0.703 |
| Elvis Andrus | 323 | 227 | 0.703 |
| Jose Abreu | 390 | 274 | 0.703 |
| Starlin Castro | 332 | 233 | 0.702 |
| Nick Castellanos | 335 | 234 | 0.699 |
| Mike Trout | 348 | 243 | 0.698 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 367 | 256 | 0.698 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 261 | 182 | 0.697 |
| Josh Harrison | 284 | 198 | 0.697 |
| Carlos Correa | 333 | 232 | 0.697 |
| Brett Gardner | 336 | 234 | 0.696 |
| George Springer | 371 | 258 | 0.695 |
| Brandon Drury | 232 | 161 | 0.694 |
| Ryon Healy | 277 | 192 | 0.693 |
| Chris Taylor | 204 | 141 | 0.691 |
| Christian Yelich | 369 | 255 | 0.691 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 317 | 219 | 0.691 |
| Jonathan Lucroy | 304 | 210 | 0.691 |
| David Peralta | 232 | 160 | 0.690 |
| Hunter Pence | 244 | 168 | 0.689 |
| Aaron Judge | 247 | 170 | 0.688 |
| Francisco Lindor | 388 | 267 | 0.688 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 378 | 260 | 0.688 |
| Anthony Rendon | 349 | 240 | 0.688 |
| Yunel Escobar | 217 | 149 | 0.687 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 229 | 157 | 0.686 |
| Josh Donaldson | 302 | 207 | 0.685 |
| Trevor Story | 305 | 209 | 0.685 |
| Gerardo Parra | 241 | 165 | 0.685 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 371 | 254 | 0.685 |
| Evan Longoria | 379 | 259 | 0.683 |
| Nelson Cruz | 369 | 252 | 0.683 |
| Chris Owings | 249 | 170 | 0.683 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 312 | 213 | 0.683 |
| Melky Cabrera | 321 | 219 | 0.682 |
| Denard Span | 302 | 206 | 0.682 |
| Billy Hamilton | 307 | 209 | 0.681 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 379 | 258 | 0.681 |
| Thomas Pham | 216 | 147 | 0.681 |
| C.J. Cron | 266 | 181 | 0.680 |
| Zack Cozart | 281 | 191 | 0.680 |
| Trey Mancini | 212 | 144 | 0.679 |
| Ian Kinsler | 348 | 236 | 0.678 |
| Tucker Barnhart | 267 | 181 | 0.678 |
| Didi Gregorius | 350 | 237 | 0.677 |
| Nomar Mazara | 346 | 234 | 0.676 |
| Domingo Santana | 247 | 167 | 0.676 |
| Marcus Semien | 318 | 214 | 0.673 |
| Yangervis Solarte | 299 | 201 | 0.672 |
| Marwin Gonzalez | 302 | 203 | 0.672 |
| Jason Heyward | 302 | 203 | 0.672 |
| Albert Pujols | 369 | 248 | 0.672 |
| Jason Kipnis | 311 | 209 | 0.672 |
| Jed Lowrie | 304 | 204 | 0.671 |
| Jordy Mercer | 352 | 236 | 0.670 |
| Jonathan Villar | 297 | 199 | 0.670 |
| Justin Upton | 375 | 251 | 0.669 |
| Justin Bour | 251 | 168 | 0.669 |
| Corey Dickerson | 335 | 224 | 0.669 |
| Brandon Crawford | 353 | 236 | 0.669 |
| Howie Kendrick | 235 | 157 | 0.668 |
| David Freese | 247 | 165 | 0.668 |
| Joe Panik | 292 | 195 | 0.668 |
| Stephen Piscotty | 304 | 203 | 0.668 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 270 | 180 | 0.667 |
| Welington Castillo | 226 | 150 | 0.664 |
| Michael Taylor | 217 | 144 | 0.664 |
| Mark Reynolds | 255 | 169 | 0.663 |
| Ian Desmond | 314 | 208 | 0.662 |
| Miguel Sano | 260 | 172 | 0.662 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 322 | 213 | 0.661 |
| Brandon Belt | 307 | 203 | 0.661 |
| Kevin Pillar | 366 | 242 | 0.661 |
| Avisail Garcia | 268 | 177 | 0.660 |
| Josh Bell | 244 | 161 | 0.660 |
| Kyle Seager | 388 | 256 | 0.660 |
| Freddy Galvis | 389 | 256 | 0.658 |
| Jay Bruce | 339 | 223 | 0.658 |
| Timothy Beckham | 210 | 138 | 0.657 |
| Victor Martinez | 309 | 203 | 0.657 |
| Carlos Sanchez | 230 | 151 | 0.657 |
| Aledmys Diaz | 221 | 145 | 0.656 |
| Danny Valencia | 286 | 187 | 0.654 |
| Javier Baez | 286 | 187 | 0.654 |
| Justin Smoak | 294 | 192 | 0.653 |
| Salvador Perez | 317 | 207 | 0.653 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 334 | 218 | 0.653 |
| Ketel Marte | 241 | 157 | 0.651 |
| Kurt Suzuki | 209 | 136 | 0.651 |
| Adam Duvall | 352 | 229 | 0.651 |
| Jose Reyes | 203 | 132 | 0.650 |
| Mitch Haniger | 200 | 130 | 0.650 |
| Max Kepler | 297 | 193 | 0.650 |
| Cameron Maybin | 231 | 150 | 0.649 |
| Travis Shaw | 339 | 220 | 0.649 |
| Carlos Beltran | 258 | 167 | 0.647 |
| Matt Carpenter | 334 | 216 | 0.647 |
| Derek Dietrich | 262 | 169 | 0.645 |
| Dansby Swanson | 231 | 149 | 0.645 |
| Kendrys Morales | 338 | 218 | 0.645 |
| Jacob Lamb | 307 | 198 | 0.645 |
| Yasiel Puig | 273 | 176 | 0.645 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 360 | 232 | 0.644 |
| Bryce Harper | 323 | 208 | 0.644 |
| Yonder Alonso | 317 | 204 | 0.644 |
| Alcides Escobar | 401 | 258 | 0.643 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 269 | 173 | 0.643 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | 383 | 246 | 0.642 |
| Tommy Joseph | 201 | 129 | 0.642 |
| Evan Gattis | 251 | 161 | 0.641 |
| Andrew Benintendi | 245 | 157 | 0.641 |
| Ben Zobrist | 291 | 186 | 0.639 |
| Neil Walker | 253 | 161 | 0.636 |
| Gary Sanchez | 230 | 146 | 0.635 |
| Rajai Davis | 219 | 139 | 0.635 |
| Mark Trumbo | 344 | 218 | 0.634 |
| Chase Headley | 281 | 178 | 0.633 |
| Jedd Gyorko | 248 | 157 | 0.633 |
| Jose Iglesias | 331 | 209 | 0.631 |
| Wil Myers | 320 | 202 | 0.631 |
| Mitch Moreland | 301 | 190 | 0.631 |
| Carlos Santana | 381 | 240 | 0.630 |
| Jackie Bradley, Jr. | 351 | 221 | 0.630 |
| Kolten Wong | 228 | 143 | 0.627 |
| Stephen Vogt | 201 | 126 | 0.627 |
| Rougned Odor | 351 | 220 | 0.627 |
| Kole Calhoun | 359 | 225 | 0.627 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 214 | 134 | 0.626 |
| Maikel Franco | 349 | 218 | 0.625 |
| Brian McCann | 252 | 157 | 0.623 |
| Robbie Grossman | 244 | 152 | 0.623 |
| Yasmani Grandal | 274 | 170 | 0.620 |
| Dexter Fowler | 280 | 173 | 0.618 |
| Chase Utley | 225 | 139 | 0.618 |
| Orlando Arcia | 243 | 150 | 0.617 |
| Addison Russell | 290 | 179 | 0.617 |
| Jayson Werth | 208 | 128 | 0.615 |
| Khristopher Davis | 366 | 225 | 0.615 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 220 | 135 | 0.614 |
| Adeiny Hechavarria | 266 | 163 | 0.613 |
| Curtis Granderson | 302 | 185 | 0.613 |
| Matt Wieters | 245 | 150 | 0.612 |
| Michael Conforto | 231 | 141 | 0.610 |
| Gregory Polanco | 290 | 177 | 0.610 |
| Brad Miller | 274 | 167 | 0.609 |
| Logan Morrison | 291 | 177 | 0.608 |
| Logan Forsythe | 262 | 159 | 0.607 |
| James McCann | 253 | 153 | 0.605 |
| Delino Deshields Jr. | 207 | 125 | 0.604 |
| Leonys Martin | 234 | 141 | 0.603 |
| Erick Aybar | 203 | 122 | 0.601 |
| Randal Grichuk | 247 | 148 | 0.599 |
| Jarrod Dyson | 232 | 139 | 0.599 |
| Aaron Hicks | 224 | 133 | 0.594 |
| Scott Schebler | 243 | 144 | 0.593 |
| Matt Joyce | 211 | 125 | 0.592 |
| Yan Gomes | 211 | 125 | 0.592 |
| Luis Valbuena | 230 | 136 | 0.591 |
| Joc Pederson | 229 | 135 | 0.590 |
| Steven Souza | 270 | 159 | 0.589 |
| Carlos Gomez | 274 | 161 | 0.588 |
| Alex Gordon | 326 | 191 | 0.586 |
| Byron Buxton | 242 | 141 | 0.583 |
| Jose Bautista | 297 | 173 | 0.582 |
| Mike Napoli | 265 | 154 | 0.581 |
| Todd Frazier | 349 | 201 | 0.576 |
| Chris Carter | 202 | 115 | 0.569 |
| Russell Martin | 262 | 149 | 0.569 |
| Mike Zunino | 209 | 117 | 0.560 |
| Chris Davis | 343 | 186 | 0.542 |
| Jason Castro | 224 | 119 | 0.531 |
| Joey Gallo | 212 | 112 | 0.528 |
| Martin Maldonado | 252 | 131 | 0.520 |
| Danny Espinosa | 226 | 113 | 0.500 |
So the top hitters do have a probability great than .750. The NN is conservative, and that’s a good thing. I believe the park adjustment the NN uses is why Altuve is usually ranked higher than Blackmon.
from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2lwDNuz
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