Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.300 — Nick Castellanos batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.297 — Jean Segura batting against Jonathan Loaisiga.
0.297 — Corey Dickerson batting against Brent Suter.
0.296 — Jose Altuve batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.294 — Adam C Eaton batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.293 — Albert Almora batting against Ross Stripling.
0.292 — Scooter Gennett batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.285 — Whit Merrifield batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
0.285 — Trea Turner batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.285 — Daniel Murphy batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.284 — Brandon Crawford batting against Jose Urena.
0.284 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Derek Holland.
0.282 — Jose Martinez batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.281 — Adrian Beltre batting against Jakob Junis.
0.281 — Anthony Rendon batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.281 — Starling Marte batting against Brent Suter.
0.280 — Matthew Adams batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.279 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Chad Bettis.
0.278 — Buster Posey batting against Jose Urena.
0.278 — Juan Soto batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.277 — Christian Yelich batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.277 — Josh Harrison batting against Brent Suter.
0.275 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.274 — Eddie Rosario batting against David Price.
0.274 — Adam Jones batting against Gio Gonzalez.

There are a lot of Nationals hitters on the list, and they normally do not show up. Their inclusion is thanks to Andrew Cashner. The league is hitting .302 against Cashner, and 38 of the 88 hits against him have gone for extra bases. There are also a number of good pitchers taking the mound today, which knocks down a lot of the better batters. Castellanos is in a bit of a slump.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.296, 0.749 — Jose Altuve batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.297, 0.738 — Jean Segura batting against Jonathan Loaisiga.
0.293, 0.728 — Albert Almora batting against Ross Stripling.
0.292, 0.726 — Scooter Gennett batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.300, 0.714 — Nick Castellanos batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.297, 0.713 — Corey Dickerson batting against Brent Suter.
0.274, 0.712 — Eddie Rosario batting against David Price.
0.268, 0.711 — Michael Brantley batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.285, 0.711 — Daniel Murphy batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.267, 0.710 — Gerardo Parra batting against Seth Lugo.
0.282, 0.709 — Jose Martinez batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.271, 0.708 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.284, 0.707 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Derek Holland.
0.281, 0.706 — Adrian Beltre batting against Jakob Junis.
0.272, 0.703 — J.D. Martinez batting against Lance Lynn.
0.294, 0.700 — Adam C Eaton batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.267, 0.699 — Dee Gordon batting against Jonathan Loaisiga.
0.285, 0.699 — Whit Merrifield batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
0.274, 0.697 — Adam Jones batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.254, 0.697 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Seth Lugo.
0.253, 0.697 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Seth Lugo.
0.278, 0.696 — Buster Posey batting against Jose Urena.
0.281, 0.696 — Starling Marte batting against Brent Suter.
0.256, 0.696 — Matt Kemp batting against Jon Lester.
0.257, 0.696 — Nolan Arenado batting against Seth Lugo.

As usual, Altuve take the top spot in the NN rankings. Segura is the consensus first pick, with Altuve second.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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