Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.308 — Brandon Crawford batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.305 — Jose Martinez batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.290 — Buster Posey batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.287 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.286 — Jean Segura batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.280 — Jon Jay batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.279 — J.D. Martinez batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.276 — Michael Brantley batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.276 — Yadier Molina batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.275 — Jose Abreu batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.275 — Starlin Castro batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.274 — David Peralta batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.273 — Eric Hosmer batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.272 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.269 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.268 — Brian Anderson batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.268 — Matt M Duffy batting against Sam J Gaviglio.
0.267 — Alen Hanson batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.266 — Nick Hundley batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.266 — Jose Pirela batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.265 — Albert Almora batting against Junior Guerra.
0.265 — Thomas Pham batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.265 — Corey Dickerson batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.263 — Austin Jackson batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.260 — Derek Dietrich batting against Madison Bumgarner.

Crawford, at seasonal age 31, is hitting well above his career norms. He’s been strong both home and away. Note that these hit averages against are not particularly high. There’s a light schedule today, so a number of the better streak hitters are not playing.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.286, 0.737 — Jean Segura batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.305, 0.730 — Jose Martinez batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.308, 0.718 — Brandon Crawford batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.279, 0.711 — J.D. Martinez batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.276, 0.710 — Michael Brantley batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.287, 0.707 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.290, 0.707 — Buster Posey batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.265, 0.706 — Albert Almora batting against Junior Guerra.
0.268, 0.705 — Matt M Duffy batting against Sam J Gaviglio.
0.265, 0.704 — Corey Dickerson batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.275, 0.700 — Jose Abreu batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.275, 0.697 — Starlin Castro batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.280, 0.697 — Jon Jay batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.273, 0.694 — Eric Hosmer batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.276, 0.692 — Yadier Molina batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.274, 0.689 — David Peralta batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.269, 0.688 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.257, 0.687 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.254, 0.687 — Jose Ramirez batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.248, 0.686 — Dee Gordon batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.251, 0.683 — Wilson Ramos batting against Sam J Gaviglio.
0.259, 0.682 — Christian Yelich batting against Jose Quintana.
0.266, 0.679 — Jose Pirela batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.240, 0.678 — Adam Jones batting against Steven Wright.
0.268, 0.677 — Brian Anderson batting against Madison Bumgarner.

Segura pops to the top of the NN list. I think this is a good example of the NN being more concerned about the long-term batter trend than short-term success. Crawford and Jose Martinez are tied for consensus first choice, however.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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