Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.310 — Jose Martinez batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.307 — Michael Brantley batting against Dylan Covey.
0.303 — Albert Almora batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.301 — Whit Merrifield batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.301 — Adrian Beltre batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.299 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.296 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.285 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Zack Greinke.
0.284 — Starlin Castro batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.284 — Tyler Naquin batting against Dylan Covey.
0.282 — Jose Ramirez batting against Dylan Covey.
0.281 — Michael Moustakas batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.281 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Erick Fedde.
0.280 — Jose Altuve batting against Ryne Stanek.
0.280 — Brian Anderson batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.280 — Miguel Andujar batting against Erick Fedde.
0.276 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.275 — Derek Dietrich batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.275 — Yadier Molina batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.275 — Francisco Lindor batting against Dylan Covey.
0.273 — Lonnie Chisenhall batting against Dylan Covey.
0.272 — Christian Yelich batting against Trevor Williams.
0.269 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Trevor Williams.
0.269 — Mike Trout batting against Zack Greinke.
0.267 — Thomas Pham batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.267 — Jon Jay batting against Jaime Barria.

It looks like a good day to play for the Cardinals or the Indians. In his short career, Pivetta allowed a .272 BA with a .339 OBP, so he’s quite hittable. Covey, despite a low ERA this season, still gives up a hit an inning.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.280, 0.740 — Jose Altuve batting against Ryne Stanek.
0.307, 0.734 — Michael Brantley batting against Dylan Covey.
0.310, 0.732 — Jose Martinez batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.303, 0.731 — Albert Almora batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.301, 0.718 — Adrian Beltre batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.299, 0.717 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.301, 0.715 — Whit Merrifield batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.296, 0.711 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.282, 0.707 — Jose Ramirez batting against Dylan Covey.
0.265, 0.706 — Matt Kemp batting against Tyler Chatwood.
0.281, 0.703 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Erick Fedde.
0.284, 0.703 — Tyler Naquin batting against Dylan Covey.
0.259, 0.703 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Ryne Stanek.
0.262, 0.702 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.285, 0.702 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Zack Greinke.
0.249, 0.701 — Matt M Duffy batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.284, 0.698 — Starlin Castro batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.255, 0.697 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.266, 0.696 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.250, 0.692 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.255, 0.692 — Daniel Murphy batting against Sonny Gray.
0.273, 0.691 — Lonnie Chisenhall batting against Dylan Covey.
0.267, 0.690 — Jon Jay batting against Jaime Barria.
0.253, 0.690 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.276, 0.690 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Tyler Anderson.

As usual, Jose Altuve takes the top slot. Jose Martinez and Michael Brantley are tied for the consensus first choice, however. Martinez is due to come off paternity leave tonight.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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