Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.358 — Jose Altuve batting against Jason Hammel.
0.354 — Matt Kemp batting against Jason Vargas.
0.341 — Adam Jones batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.336 — Eddie Rosario batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.328 — Manny Machado batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.327 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Jason Hammel.
0.327 — J.D. Martinez batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.325 — Brandon Crawford batting against Eric Lauer.
0.321 — Mookie Betts batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.317 — Buster Posey batting against Eric Lauer.
0.315 — Albert Almora batting against Sal Romano.
0.309 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Eric Lauer.
0.309 — J.T. Realmuto batting against German Marquez.
0.308 — Danny Valencia batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.302 — Brandon Belt batting against Eric Lauer.
0.301 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.297 — Alen Hanson batting against Eric Lauer.
0.295 — Mark Trumbo batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.295 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.294 — Nick Hundley batting against Eric Lauer.
0.293 — Justin Turner batting against Jason Vargas.
0.293 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.293 — Yasiel Puig batting against Jason Vargas.
0.292 — Chris Taylor batting against Jason Vargas.
0.291 — Evan Longoria batting against Eric Lauer.

The Mets pitcher is officially undeclared. Vargas was going to start the game but got scratched late last night. The Mets bullpen will likely pitch the game, so picking Dodgers today is problematic.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.358, 0.779 — Jose Altuve batting against Jason Hammel.
0.336, 0.750 — Eddie Rosario batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.354, 0.746 — Matt Kemp batting against Jason Vargas.
0.327, 0.744 — J.D. Martinez batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.327, 0.738 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Jason Hammel.
0.341, 0.738 — Adam Jones batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.315, 0.737 — Albert Almora batting against Sal Romano.
0.321, 0.732 — Mookie Betts batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.309, 0.728 — J.T. Realmuto batting against German Marquez.
0.328, 0.720 — Manny Machado batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.251, 0.717 — Jean Segura batting against Chris Sale.
0.317, 0.716 — Buster Posey batting against Eric Lauer.
0.325, 0.715 — Brandon Crawford batting against Eric Lauer.
0.262, 0.711 — Scooter Gennett batting against Tyler Chatwood.
0.293, 0.709 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.266, 0.707 — Gerardo Parra batting against Caleb Smith.
0.281, 0.705 — Freddie Freeman batting against David Hess.
0.260, 0.704 — Michael Brantley batting against Matt Boyd.
0.288, 0.704 — Starlin Castro batting against German Marquez.
0.261, 0.703 — Matt M Duffy batting against Domingo German.
0.279, 0.702 — Corey Dickerson batting against Clay Buchholz.
0.275, 0.702 — Jon Jay batting against Trevor Williams.
0.295, 0.702 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.301, 0.701 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.267, 0.700 — Daniel Murphy batting against Nick Pivetta.

Altuve and Rosario look like a good double down pick today.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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