Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.357 — Freddie Freeman batting against Alex Cobb.
0.351 — Nick Markakis batting against Alex Cobb.
0.329 — Jon Jay batting against Ivan Nova.
0.327 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.326 — Kurt Suzuki batting against Alex Cobb.
0.320 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Fiers.
0.320 — Ender Inciarte batting against Alex Cobb.
0.317 — Gerardo Parra batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.315 — Matt Kemp batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.313 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.311 — Nolan Arenado batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.310 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.310 — David Peralta batting against Ivan Nova.
0.308 — Charlie Culberson batting against Alex Cobb.
0.308 — Ozzie Albies batting against Alex Cobb.
0.304 — Eddie Rosario batting against Mike Minor.
0.304 — Albert Almora batting against Luis Castillo.
0.302 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.299 — Brian Anderson batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.299 — Nick Castellanos batting against Shane Bieber.
0.298 — Starlin Castro batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.297 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.297 — Jesse Biddle batting against Alex Cobb.
0.296 — Dansby Swanson batting against Alex Cobb.
0.295 — Jose Ramirez batting against Michael Fiers.
0.295 — Tyler Flowers batting against Alex Cobb.

Alex Cobb lights up an order this season. He pitched a good game against the Mets earlier this month, then gave up 18 hits in 10 2/3 innings in his next two starts. It should be a good day for the Braves batters.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.327, 0.766 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.357, 0.748 — Freddie Freeman batting against Alex Cobb.
0.320, 0.737 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Fiers.
0.351, 0.737 — Nick Markakis batting against Alex Cobb.
0.317, 0.736 — Gerardo Parra batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.329, 0.735 — Jon Jay batting against Ivan Nova.
0.310, 0.732 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.304, 0.731 — Albert Almora batting against Luis Castillo.
0.315, 0.728 — Matt Kemp batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.311, 0.728 — Nolan Arenado batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.304, 0.728 — Eddie Rosario batting against Mike Minor.
0.302, 0.725 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.258, 0.725 — Jean Segura batting against Steven Wright.
0.313, 0.724 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.297, 0.723 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.282, 0.722 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jose Quintana.
0.285, 0.715 — Matt M Duffy batting against CC Sabathia.
0.320, 0.714 — Ender Inciarte batting against Alex Cobb.
0.295, 0.712 — Jose Ramirez batting against Michael Fiers.
0.310, 0.712 — David Peralta batting against Ivan Nova.
0.299, 0.712 — Nick Castellanos batting against Shane Bieber.
0.326, 0.711 — Kurt Suzuki batting against Alex Cobb.
0.298, 0.710 — Starlin Castro batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.288, 0.709 — Buster Posey batting against Clayton Richard.
0.280, 0.707 — Mookie Betts batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.275, 0.707 — J.D. Martinez batting against Wade LeBlanc.

Altuve is very good and very hot. His hit average this season is an impressive .315, and his three-year hit-average stands at .309. Joe DiMaggio posted a .319 hit average from 1939-1941, a big reason he was able to set the hit streak record.

Freeman is the consensus first choice, however.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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