Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.335 — Jose Altuve batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.324 — J.D. Martinez batting against Mike Leake.
0.321 — Mookie Betts batting against Mike Leake.
0.319 — Albert Almora batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.313 — Eddie Rosario batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.301 — Odubel Herrera batting against Erick Fedde.
0.301 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.300 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.299 — Scooter Gennett batting against Luke Farrell.
0.299 — Jon Jay batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.299 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.296 — Jean Segura batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.296 — Brandon Crawford batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.296 — Matt M Duffy batting against Sonny Gray.
0.294 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Mike Leake.
0.294 — Miguel Andujar batting against Wilmer Font.
0.293 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Mike Leake.
0.293 — Buster Posey batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.291 — Gerardo Parra batting against Trevor Richards.
0.288 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Mike Leake.
0.287 — Corey Dickerson batting against Zack Greinke.
0.286 — Nolan Arenado batting against Trevor Richards.
0.285 — Mike Trout batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.285 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.284 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Yovani Gallardo.

It’s rare to see Altuve atop the Log5 list, so it may be a very good day for him. Kennedy allowed 90 hits in 79 2/3 innings this season.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.335, 0.767 — Jose Altuve batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.319, 0.742 — Albert Almora batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.324, 0.742 — J.D. Martinez batting against Mike Leake.
0.296, 0.740 — Jean Segura batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.313, 0.734 — Eddie Rosario batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.321, 0.732 — Mookie Betts batting against Mike Leake.
0.299, 0.730 — Scooter Gennett batting against Luke Farrell.
0.301, 0.723 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.296, 0.722 — Matt M Duffy batting against Sonny Gray.
0.291, 0.721 — Gerardo Parra batting against Trevor Richards.
0.300, 0.720 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.301, 0.717 — Odubel Herrera batting against Erick Fedde.
0.299, 0.716 — Jon Jay batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.286, 0.715 — Nolan Arenado batting against Trevor Richards.
0.293, 0.710 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Mike Leake.
0.279, 0.710 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Trevor Richards.
0.277, 0.710 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Trevor Richards.
0.293, 0.709 — Buster Posey batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.299, 0.707 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.287, 0.706 — Corey Dickerson batting against Zack Greinke.
0.269, 0.705 — Dee Gordon batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.296, 0.703 — Brandon Crawford batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.283, 0.703 — Starlin Castro batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.294, 0.702 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Mike Leake.
0.250, 0.701 — Michael Brantley batting against Francisco Liriano.

Altuve is the first choice again by a wide margin. He’s 4 for 11 career against Kennedy with a double, a home run, a walk, and three K. J.D. Martinez is the consensus second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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